Iona Gaels vs. Fordham Rams

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Fordham Rams (57%) · Fordham Rams at 91¢ · $263 held · ended Nov 11

Iona Gaels10¢Fordham Rams90¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Fordham Rams

Consensus Traders

Fordham Rams 57%

Total Value

$262.86

Combined PnL

$25.19

Smart Money Entry

80.1¢ → 90.5¢

+13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidFordham Rams at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Fordham Rams

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Iona Gaels10%

Fordham Rams91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Fordham Rams4 traders

Total Value$192.43

Total Shares201

Combined PnL+$14.38

Iona Gaels3 traders

Total Value$70.44

Total Shares446

Combined PnL+$10.82

Fordham Rams — 57%Iona Gaels — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Fordham Rams. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Iona Gaels) and the top 1000 (6 on Fordham Rams) disagree here.

ctrIona Gaels 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedIona Gaels 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Fordham Rams 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Fordham Ramsavg 79.1¢	$131.99	$144.7	+$12.71	48% 947-1017 (1964)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Iona Gaelsavg 13¢	$48.52	$59.72	+$11.2	48% 190-206 (396)
PA Pan9X<$100	Fordham Ramsavg 83.9¢	$22.6	$24.12	+$1.52	49% 443-470 (913)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Fordham Ramsavg 80¢	$14.58	$15.3	+$0.73	56% 488-383 (871)
RN1CTR<$100	Iona Gaelsavg 16.8¢	$10.6	$10.12	-$0.48	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Fordham Ramsavg 86¢	$8.88	$8.3	-$0.58	62% 2344-1436 (3780)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Iona Gaelsavg 5¢	$0.5	$0.6	+$0.1	54% 1656-1433 (3089)

38791873984189

Fordham Rams

Invested

$131.99

Value

$144.7

PnL

+$12.71

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Iona Gaels

Invested

$48.52

Value

$59.72

PnL

+$11.2

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

Pan9X<$100

Fordham Rams

Invested

$22.6

Value

$24.12

PnL

+$1.52

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Fordham Rams

Invested

$14.58

Value

$15.3

PnL

+$0.73

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

RN1CTR<$100

Iona Gaels

Invested

$10.6

Value

$10.12

PnL

-$0.48

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Fordham Rams

Invested

$8.88

Value

$8.3

PnL

-$0.58

Record

62%

2344-1436 (3780)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Iona Gaels

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.6

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

1656-1433 (3089)

Research grade

AvoidFordham Rams at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Fordham Rams

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Fordham Rams. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Iona Gaels) and the top 1000 (6 on Fordham Rams) disagree here.

ctrIona Gaels 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedIona Gaels 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Fordham Rams 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Fordham Rams wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.