Indiana State Sycamores vs. Ball State Cardinals

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Ball State Cardinals (64%) · Ball State Cardinals at 87¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7

Indiana State Sycamores14¢Ball State Cardinals86¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

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⚠️

Avoid

Ball State Cardinals

Consensus Traders

Ball State Cardinals 64%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$198.31

Smart Money Entry

57.6¢ → 86.5¢

+50% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidBall State Cardinals at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ball State Cardinals

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Indiana State Sycamores14%

Ball State Cardinals87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ball State Cardinals7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,401

Combined PnL+$332.22

Indiana State Sycamores4 traders

Total Value$664.62

Total Shares1,231

Combined PnL-$133.91

Ball State Cardinals — 64%Indiana State Sycamores — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR Crazyboy77	Ball State Cardinalsavg 58¢	$290	$377.5	+$87.5	53% 205-181 (386)
FL Flaznorp	Ball State Cardinalsavg 62.9¢	$288.15	$374.82	+$86.67	51% 26597-25202 (51799)
RN1CTR	Indiana State Sycamoresavg 54¢	$303.66	$249.96	-$53.7	53% 61880-54166 (116046)
CM cm2897	Ball State Cardinalsavg 57.9¢	$161.02	$246.03	+$85.01	51% 2192-2133 (4325)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Indiana State Sycamoresavg 43.1¢	$310	$244.19	-$65.81	54% 18312-15411 (33723)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Indiana State Sycamoresavg 51.3¢	$181.43	$169.92	-$11.51	54% 3493-3030 (6523)
38 38791873984189	Ball State Cardinalsavg 48¢	$67.66	$109.98	+$42.32	48% 62002-66846 (128848)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Ball State Cardinalsavg 40¢	$20	$43.25	+$23.25	53% 12543-11257 (23800)
PA Pan9X<$100	Ball State Cardinalsavg 46¢	$6.9	$13.5	+$6.6	54% 10159-8530 (18689)
SE sentrio<$100	Ball State Cardinalsavg 58¢	$2.9	$3.78	+$0.88	50% 26188-25839 (52027)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Indiana State Sycamoresavg 69¢	$3.45	$0.55	-$2.9	56% 8430-6558 (14988)

Crazyboy77

Ball State Cardinals

Invested

$290

Value

$377.5

PnL

+$87.5

Record

53%

205-181 (386)

Flaznorp

Ball State Cardinals

Invested

$288.15

Value

$374.82

PnL

+$86.67

Record

51%

26597-25202 (51799)

RN1CTR

Indiana State Sycamores

Invested

$303.66

Value

$249.96

PnL

-$53.7

Record

53%

61880-54166 (116046)

cm2897

Ball State Cardinals

Invested

$161.02

Value

$246.03

PnL

+$85.01

Record

51%

2192-2133 (4325)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Indiana State Sycamores

Invested

$310

Value

$244.19

PnL

-$65.81

Record

54%

18312-15411 (33723)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Indiana State Sycamores

Invested

$181.43

Value

$169.92

PnL

-$11.51

Record

54%

3493-3030 (6523)

38791873984189

Ball State Cardinals

Invested

$67.66

Value

$109.98

PnL

+$42.32

Record

48%

62002-66846 (128848)

BoomLaLa<$100

Ball State Cardinals

Invested

$20

Value

$43.25

PnL

+$23.25

Record

53%

12543-11257 (23800)

Pan9X<$100

Ball State Cardinals

Invested

$6.9

Value

$13.5

PnL

+$6.6

Record

54%

10159-8530 (18689)

sentrio<$100

Ball State Cardinals

Invested

$2.9

Value

$3.78

PnL

+$0.88

Record

50%

26188-25839 (52027)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Indiana State Sycamores

Invested

$3.45

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$2.9

Record

56%

8430-6558 (14988)

Research grade

AvoidBall State Cardinals at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Ball State Cardinals

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ball State Cardinals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.