Spread: St. Thomas (MN) Tommies (-8.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Green Bay Phoenix (57%) · Green Bay Phoenix at 71¢ · $522 held · ended Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Green Bay Phoenix
7
Green Bay Phoenix 57%
$521.94
$34.35
54.2¢ → 71¢
+31% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidGreen Bay Phoenix at 71%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Green Bay Phoenix. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FE ferrariChampions2026 | Green Bay Phoenixavg 52¢ | $237.34 | $248.64 | +$11.3 | 46% 33351-38883 (72234) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 21.5¢ | $78.63 | $74.49 | -$4.14 | 50% 23449-23463 (46912) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100 | Green Bay Phoenixavg 61¢ | $57.65 | $70.03 | +$12.39 | 57% 17052-13027 (30079) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Green Bay Phoenixavg 62¢ | $45.26 | $59.13 | +$13.87 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Green Bay Phoenixavg 52¢ | $35.02 | $37.02 | +$2 | 50% 27934-27381 (55315) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 45.1¢ | $26.48 | $25.38 | -$1.1 | 54% 19973-16852 (36825) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 47¢ | $7.22 | $7.25 | +$0.03 | 52% 9497-8605 (18102) |
Invested
$237.34
Value
$248.64
PnL
+$11.3
Record
46%
33351-38883 (72234)
Invested
$78.63
Value
$74.49
PnL
-$4.14
Record
50%
23449-23463 (46912)
Invested
$57.65
Value
$70.03
PnL
+$12.39
Record
57%
17052-13027 (30079)
Invested
$45.26
Value
$59.13
PnL
+$13.87
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
Invested
$35.02
Value
$37.02
PnL
+$2
Record
50%
27934-27381 (55315)
Invested
$26.48
Value
$25.38
PnL
-$1.1
Record
54%
19973-16852 (36825)
Invested
$7.22
Value
$7.25
PnL
+$0.03
Record
52%
9497-8605 (18102)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
ferrariChampions2026
Green Bay Phoenix — $248.64
omnibus-076daa
CTRSt. Thomas (MN) Tommies — $74.49
0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872
Green Bay Phoenix — $70.03
Flaznorp
Green Bay Phoenix — $59.13
sentrio
Green Bay Phoenix — $37.02
HomeRunHazard
CTRSt. Thomas (MN) Tommies — $25.38
ameisgoat11
CTRSt. Thomas (MN) Tommies — $7.25