Green Bay Phoenix vs. St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold St. Thomas (MN) Tommies (75%) · St. Thomas (MN) Tommies at 80¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8

Green Bay Phoenix21¢St. Thomas (MN) Tommies79¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

Consensus Traders

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies 75%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$4.75

Smart Money Entry

70.9¢ → 79.5¢

+12% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidSt. Thomas (MN) Tommies at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

6 of 8 top traders (75%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Green Bay Phoenix21%

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies6 traders

Total Value$676.9

Total Shares843

Combined PnL+$32.45

Green Bay Phoenix2 traders

Total Value$64.06

Total Shares310

Combined PnL-$27.7

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies — 75%Green Bay Phoenix — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on St. Thomas (MN) Tommies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGreen Bay Phoenix 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrSt. Thomas (MN) Tommies 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedSt. Thomas (MN) Tommies 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000St. Thomas (MN) Tommies 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 59.8¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$1.79	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
└ St. Thomas (MN) Tommies leg	St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 59.8¢	$820.99	$1.1K	+$263.77
└ Green Bay Phoenix leg	Green Bay Phoenixavg 32.4¢	$742.76	$480.78	-$261.98
RN1ARB<$100	St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 69.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$34.69	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
└ St. Thomas (MN) Tommies leg	St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 69.5¢	$726.43	$831.06	+$104.63
└ Green Bay Phoenix leg	Green Bay Phoenixavg 32.9¢	$368.89	$229.57	-$139.33
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 86¢	$1.2K	$879.23	-$301.97	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
└ St. Thomas (MN) Tommies leg	St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 86¢	$717.32	$663.1	-$54.22
└ Green Bay Phoenix leg	Green Bay Phoenixavg 44¢	$463.88	$216.13	-$247.75
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 68.3¢	$269.3	$283.34	+$14.04	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
0xheavy888	St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 75¢	$249.75	$248.09	-$1.67	56% 8753-6943 (15696)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 50¢	$800	$200	+$0	56% 195-151 (346)
└ St. Thomas (MN) Tommies leg	St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 50¢	$100	$149	+$49
└ Green Bay Phoenix leg	Green Bay Phoenixavg 50¢	$100	$51	-$49
38 38791873984189	St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 67.5¢	$110	$129.58	+$19.58	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
nigiri99CTR	Green Bay Phoenixavg 24.8¢	$116.45	$61.5	-$27.75	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
PA Pan9X<$100	St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 77¢	$8.36	$8.2	-$0.17	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 66¢	$3.3	$3.98	+$0.68	46% 1997-2348 (4345)
SE sentrio<$100	St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 75¢	$3.75	$3.73	-$0.03	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Green Bay Phoenixavg 25¢	$10.05	$2.56	+$0.05	54% 19973-16852 (36825)

FlaznorpARB<$100

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

Invested

$1,563.75

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$1.79

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

Both legs:

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies$820.9959.8¢+$263.77

Green Bay Phoenix$742.7632.4¢-$261.98

RN1ARB<$100

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

Invested

$1,095.32

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$34.69

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Both legs:

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies$726.4369.5¢+$104.63

Green Bay Phoenix$368.8932.9¢-$139.33

SnakeBallARB<$100

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

Invested

$1,181.19

Value

$879.23

PnL

-$301.97

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

Both legs:

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies$717.3286¢-$54.22

Green Bay Phoenix$463.8844¢-$247.75

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

Invested

$269.3

Value

$283.34

PnL

+$14.04

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

0xheavy888

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

Invested

$249.75

Value

$248.09

PnL

-$1.67

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

Invested

$800

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

195-151 (346)

Both legs:

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies$10050¢+$49

Green Bay Phoenix$10050¢-$49

38791873984189

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

Invested

$110

Value

$129.58

PnL

+$19.58

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

nigiri99CTR

Green Bay Phoenix

Invested

$116.45

Value

$61.5

PnL

-$27.75

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

Pan9X<$100

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

Invested

$8.36

Value

$8.2

PnL

-$0.17

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.98

PnL

+$0.68

Record

46%

1997-2348 (4345)

sentrio<$100

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.73

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Green Bay Phoenix

Invested

$10.05

Value

$2.56

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Research grade

AvoidSt. Thomas (MN) Tommies at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

6 of 8 top traders (75%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on St. Thomas (MN) Tommies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGreen Bay Phoenix 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrSt. Thomas (MN) Tommies 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedSt. Thomas (MN) Tommies 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000St. Thomas (MN) Tommies 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that St. Thomas (MN) Tommies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.