Spread: Florida Gators (-9.5)

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Florida State Seminoles (100%) · Florida State Seminoles at 62¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 10

Florida Gators39¢Florida State Seminoles61¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Florida State Seminoles

Consensus Traders

Florida State Seminoles 100%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$80.65

Smart Money Entry

52.5¢ → 61.5¢

+17% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidFlorida State Seminoles at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Florida State Seminoles

5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Florida Gators39%

Florida State Seminoles62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Florida State Seminoles5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,364

Combined PnL+$80.65

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+40 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Florida State Seminoles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperFlorida State Seminoles 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFlorida State Seminoles 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Florida State Seminoles 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Florida State Seminolesavg 52.6¢	$877.5	$917.08	+$39.58	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Florida Gatorsavg 45¢	$792.73	$800.86	+$8.13	54% 1645-1416 (3061)
└ Florida Gators leg	Florida Gatorsavg 45¢	$577.24	$577.24	-$0
└ Florida State Seminoles leg	Florida State Seminolesavg 53¢	$215.49	$223.62	+$8.13
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Florida State Seminolesavg 52.4¢	$561.87	$515.41	+$8.54	48% 939-1010 (1949)
└ Florida State Seminoles leg	Florida State Seminolesavg 52.4¢	$282.62	$296.78	+$16.79
└ Florida Gators leg	Florida Gatorsavg 46.7¢	$226.88	$218.63	-$8.25
BA bands1	Florida State Seminolesavg 52¢	$230.36	$243.65	+$13.29	50% 331-328 (659)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Florida Gatorsavg 46.4¢	$327.5	$222.06	-$65.95	50% 1433-1435 (2868)
└ Florida Gators leg	Florida Gatorsavg 46.4¢	$238.76	$154.46	-$84.3
└ Florida State Seminoles leg	Florida State Seminolesavg 51¢	$49.25	$67.6	+$18.35
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Florida State Seminolesavg 52.9¢	$118.13	$144.05	+$25.92	56% 488-383 (871)
RN1ARB<$100	Florida Gatorsavg 46¢	$152.29	$138.29	-$14	58% 3771-2731 (6502)
└ Florida Gators leg	Florida Gatorsavg 46¢	$110.86	$86.76	-$24.1
└ Florida State Seminoles leg	Florida State Seminolesavg 51.5¢	$41.43	$51.53	+$10.1
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Florida State Seminolesavg 52.5¢	$203.83	$100.01	+$3.1	50% 262-258 (520)
└ Florida State Seminoles leg	Florida State Seminolesavg 52.5¢	$52.51	$55.01	+$3
└ Florida Gators leg	Florida Gatorsavg 47¢	$47.05	$45	+$0.1
PA Pan9X<$100	Florida State Seminolesavg 51.9¢	$46.15	$21.83	+$1.8	49% 440-464 (904)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Florida State Seminolesavg 52¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	26% 177-517 (694)

HomeRunHazard

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$877.5

Value

$917.08

PnL

+$39.58

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Florida Gators

Invested

$792.73

Value

$800.86

PnL

+$8.13

Record

54%

1645-1416 (3061)

Both legs:

Florida Gators$577.2445¢-$0

Florida State Seminoles$215.4953¢+$8.13

38791873984189ARB<$100

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$561.87

Value

$515.41

PnL

+$8.54

Record

48%

939-1010 (1949)

Both legs:

Florida State Seminoles$282.6252.4¢+$16.79

Florida Gators$226.8846.7¢-$8.25

bands1

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$230.36

Value

$243.65

PnL

+$13.29

Record

50%

331-328 (659)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Florida Gators

Invested

$327.5

Value

$222.06

PnL

-$65.95

Record

50%

1433-1435 (2868)

Both legs:

Florida Gators$238.7646.4¢-$84.3

Florida State Seminoles$49.2551¢+$18.35

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$118.13

Value

$144.05

PnL

+$25.92

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

RN1ARB<$100

Florida Gators

Invested

$152.29

Value

$138.29

PnL

-$14

Record

58%

3771-2731 (6502)

Both legs:

Florida Gators$110.8646¢-$24.1

Florida State Seminoles$41.4351.5¢+$10.1

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$203.83

Value

$100.01

PnL

+$3.1

Record

50%

262-258 (520)

Both legs:

Florida State Seminoles$52.5152.5¢+$3

Florida Gators$47.0547¢+$0.1

Pan9X<$100

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$46.15

Value

$21.83

PnL

+$1.8

Record

49%

440-464 (904)

ameisgoat11<$100

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$4.95

Value

PnL

+$0.05

Record

26%

177-517 (694)

Research grade

AvoidFlorida State Seminoles at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Florida State Seminoles

5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+40 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Florida State Seminoles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperFlorida State Seminoles 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFlorida State Seminoles 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Florida State Seminoles 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Florida State Seminoles wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.