Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Fairleigh Dickinson Knights vs. East Texas A&M Lions: O/U 137.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 44¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 60%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
$368.58
33¢ → 44¢
+33% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 44%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Overavg 36.3¢ | $524.28 | $655.6 | +$131.32 | 53% 1811-1620 (3431) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 41.7¢ | $539.74 | $645.77 | +$106.03 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Overavg 35¢ | $243.88 | $276.66 | +$32.78 | 57% 4029-3048 (7077) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 35¢ | $170.57 | $211.95 | +$41.37 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 64¢ | $73.31 | $64.72 | -$8.59 | |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR | Overavg 26¢ | $130 | $217.5 | +$87.5 | 55% 715-580 (1295) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 29¢ | $77.22 | $110.58 | +$33.36 | 48% 1352-1466 (2818) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $43.43 | $53.8 | +$10.37 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
Invested
$524.28
Value
$655.6
PnL
+$131.32
Record
53%
1811-1620 (3431)
Invested
$539.74
Value
$645.77
PnL
+$106.03
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$243.88
Value
$276.66
PnL
+$32.78
Record
57%
4029-3048 (7077)
Both legs:
Invested
$130
Value
$217.5
PnL
+$87.5
Record
55%
715-580 (1295)
Invested
$77.22
Value
$110.58
PnL
+$33.36
Record
48%
1352-1466 (2818)
Invested
$43.43
Value
$53.8
PnL
+$10.37
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.