Delaware State Hornets vs. Georgetown Hoyas

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Georgetown Hoyas (83%) · Georgetown Hoyas at 83¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 10

Delaware State Hornets17¢Georgetown Hoyas83¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Georgetown Hoyas

Consensus Traders

Georgetown Hoyas 83%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$29.14

Smart Money Entry

93.9¢ → 82.9¢

-12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidGeorgetown Hoyas at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Georgetown Hoyas

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Delaware State Hornets17%

Georgetown Hoyas83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgetown Hoyas5 traders

Total Value$936.37

Total Shares1,197

Combined PnL-$197.22

Delaware State Hornets1 trader

Total Value$177

Total Shares744

Combined PnL+$168.08

Georgetown Hoyas — 83%Delaware State Hornets — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Georgetown Hoyas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDelaware State Hornets 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedGeorgetown Hoyas 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Georgetown Hoyas 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Georgetown Hoyasavg 98.8¢	$680.41	$520.64	-$159.77	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
38 38791873984189	Georgetown Hoyasavg 91.1¢	$300.75	$233.8	-$29.41	48% 947-1017 (1964)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Delaware State Hornetsavg 1.2¢	$8.92	$177	+$168.08	48% 190-206 (396)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Georgetown Hoyasavg 80.6¢	$102.52	$105.77	+$3.25	56% 488-383 (871)
PA Pan9X<$100	Georgetown Hoyasavg 87.1¢	$89.71	$64.27	-$11.3	49% 443-470 (913)
RN1<$100	Georgetown Hoyasavg 75.5¢	$11.88	$11.9	+$0.02	58% 3802-2782 (6584)

Flaznorp

Georgetown Hoyas

Invested

$680.41

Value

$520.64

PnL

-$159.77

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

38791873984189

Georgetown Hoyas

Invested

$300.75

Value

$233.8

PnL

-$29.41

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

SnakeBallCTR

Delaware State Hornets

Invested

$8.92

Value

$177

PnL

+$168.08

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Georgetown Hoyas

Invested

$102.52

Value

$105.77

PnL

+$3.25

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

Pan9X<$100

Georgetown Hoyas

Invested

$89.71

Value

$64.27

PnL

-$11.3

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

RN1<$100

Georgetown Hoyas

Invested

$11.88

Value

$11.9

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

Research grade

AvoidGeorgetown Hoyas at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Georgetown Hoyas

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Georgetown Hoyas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDelaware State Hornets 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedGeorgetown Hoyas 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Georgetown Hoyas 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Georgetown Hoyas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.6%

82.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.