Dartmouth Big Green vs. Albany Great Danes
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Dartmouth Big Green (100%) · Dartmouth Big Green at 51¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Dartmouth Big Green
6
Dartmouth Big Green 100%
1 arb excluded
$4.0K
$95.5
50.1¢ → 51¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidDartmouth Big Green at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | Dartmouth Big Greenavg 50¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$38.38 | 51% 3711-3543 (7254) |
FO forecastication4 | Dartmouth Big Greenavg 50¢ | $869 | $912.45 | +$43.45 | 18% 48-217 (265) |
FL Flaznorp | Dartmouth Big Greenavg 50¢ | $411.19 | $419.41 | +$8.22 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Dartmouth Big Greenavg 50.8¢ | $299.83 | $301.02 | +$1.2 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Dartmouth Big Greenavg 50.6¢ | $243.52 | $238.28 | +$3.54 | 48% 1310-1415 (2725) |
| └ Dartmouth Big Green leg | Dartmouth Big Greenavg 50.6¢ | $187.97 | $189.28 | +$1.54 | |
| └ Albany Great Danes leg | Albany Great Danesavg 47¢ | $47 | $49 | +$2 | |
 RollAwayTheDew | Dartmouth Big Greenavg 50¢ | $196.15 | $200.07 | +$3.92 | 9% 24-239 (263) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Dartmouth Big Greenavg 51.5¢ | $18.22 | $18.55 | +$0.33 | 48% 659-706 (1365) |
Invested
$1,918.86
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$38.38
Record
51%
3711-3543 (7254)
Invested
$869
Value
$912.45
PnL
+$43.45
Record
18%
48-217 (265)
Invested
$411.19
Value
$419.41
PnL
+$8.22
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Invested
$299.83
Value
$301.02
PnL
+$1.2
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$243.52
Value
$238.28
PnL
+$3.54
Record
48%
1310-1415 (2725)
Both legs:
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$196.15
Value
$200.07
PnL
+$3.92
Record
9%
24-239 (263)
Invested
$18.22
Value
$18.55
PnL
+$0.33
Record
48%
659-706 (1365)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465
Dartmouth Big Green — $2.0K
forecastication4
Dartmouth Big Green — $912.45
Flaznorp
Dartmouth Big Green — $419.41
HomeRunHazard
Dartmouth Big Green — $301.02
38791873984189
ARBArbitrage — excluded
RollAwayTheDew
Dartmouth Big Green — $200.07
Pan9X
Dartmouth Big Green — $18.55