Spread: Cincinnati Bearcats (-6.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Cincinnati Bearcats (67%) · Cincinnati Bearcats at 92¢ · $712 held · ended Nov 15

Cincinnati Bearcats92¢Dayton Flyers8¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cincinnati Bearcats

Consensus Traders

Cincinnati Bearcats 67%

Total Value

$711.53

Combined PnL

-$116.14

Smart Money Entry

64.1¢ → 92¢

+43% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidCincinnati Bearcats at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cincinnati Bearcats

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Cincinnati Bearcats92%

Dayton Flyers8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cincinnati Bearcats6 traders

Total Value$534.75

Total Shares922

Combined PnL-$56.68

Dayton Flyers3 traders

Total Value$176.78

Total Shares729

Combined PnL-$59.46

Cincinnati Bearcats — 67%Dayton Flyers — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Cincinnati Bearcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDayton Flyers 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedCincinnati Bearcats 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cincinnati Bearcats 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Cincinnati Bearcatsavg 75¢	$375	$290	-$85	55% 1734-1418 (3152)
RN1	Cincinnati Bearcatsavg 51¢	$121.38	$138.04	+$16.66	55% 5637-4683 (10320)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Dayton Flyersavg 25¢	$129.5	$88.06	-$41.44	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
38 38791873984189<$100	Cincinnati Bearcatsavg 49¢	$73.5	$86.99	+$13.5	47% 3487-3859 (7346)
BA BayupatiCTR	Dayton Flyersavg 51¢	$102.12	$84.1	-$18.02	18% 33-149 (182)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cincinnati Bearcatsavg 75¢	$13.5	$10.44	-$3.06	49% 1751-1796 (3547)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Cincinnati Bearcatsavg 51¢	$5.61	$6.38	+$0.77	48% 2318-2517 (4835)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Dayton Flyersavg 42¢	$4.62	$4.62	+$0	50% 2654-2620 (5274)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Cincinnati Bearcatsavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.9	+$0.45	41% 726-1032 (1758)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Cincinnati Bearcats

Invested

$375

Value

$290

PnL

-$85

Record

55%

1734-1418 (3152)

RN1

Cincinnati Bearcats

Invested

$121.38

Value

$138.04

PnL

+$16.66

Record

55%

5637-4683 (10320)

FlaznorpCTR

Dayton Flyers

Invested

$129.5

Value

$88.06

PnL

-$41.44

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

38791873984189<$100

Cincinnati Bearcats

Invested

$73.5

Value

$86.99

PnL

+$13.5

Record

47%

3487-3859 (7346)

BayupatiCTR

Dayton Flyers

Invested

$102.12

Value

$84.1

PnL

-$18.02

Record

18%

33-149 (182)

Pan9X<$100

Cincinnati Bearcats

Invested

$13.5

Value

$10.44

PnL

-$3.06

Record

49%

1751-1796 (3547)

ferdinand2<$100

Cincinnati Bearcats

Invested

$5.61

Value

$6.38

PnL

+$0.77

Record

48%

2318-2517 (4835)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Dayton Flyers

Invested

$4.62

Value

$4.62

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2654-2620 (5274)

ameisgoat11<$100

Cincinnati Bearcats

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0.45

Record

41%

726-1032 (1758)

Research grade

AvoidCincinnati Bearcats at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cincinnati Bearcats

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Cincinnati Bearcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDayton Flyers 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedCincinnati Bearcats 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cincinnati Bearcats 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cincinnati Bearcats wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.