Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Dayton Flyers

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Cincinnati Bearcats (60%) · Cincinnati Bearcats at 97¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Cincinnati Bearcats97¢Dayton Flyers3¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cincinnati Bearcats

Consensus Traders

Cincinnati Bearcats 60%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$129.22

Smart Money Entry

82.9¢ → 97.2¢

+17% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidCincinnati Bearcats at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cincinnati Bearcats

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Cincinnati Bearcats97%

Dayton Flyers3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cincinnati Bearcats9 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,266

Combined PnL+$42.76

Dayton Flyers6 traders

Total Value$602.91

Total Shares1,927

Combined PnL-$171.98

Cincinnati Bearcats — 60%Dayton Flyers — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Cincinnati Bearcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCincinnati Bearcats 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDayton Flyers 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedCincinnati Bearcats 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Cincinnati Bearcats 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Cincinnati Bearcatsavg 86.6¢	$1.1K	$957.11	-$89.44	57% 3585-2663 (6248)
NO NotJumpCTR	Dayton Flyersavg 50¢	$525	$525	-$0	51% 954-911 (1865)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Cincinnati Bearcatsavg 84¢	$420	$450	+$30	55% 1734-1418 (3152)
nigiri99	Cincinnati Bearcatsavg 72¢	$315.36	$394.2	+$78.84	51% 628-592 (1220)
38 38791873984189	Cincinnati Bearcatsavg 84.3¢	$158.46	$169.2	+$10.74	47% 3487-3859 (7346)
TH thirdt1me<$100	Cincinnati Bearcatsavg 85¢	$85	$90	+$5	48% 304-328 (632)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Cincinnati Bearcatsavg 84¢	$31.71	$35.67	+$3.96	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Dayton Flyersavg 28¢	$89.4	$31.93	-$57.47	23% 191-640 (831)
RN1<$100	Cincinnati Bearcatsavg 88.1¢	$29.07	$29.7	+$0.63	55% 5637-4683 (10320)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Dayton Flyersavg 10¢	$66.06	$26.75	-$39.31	38% 1162-1897 (3059)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cincinnati Bearcatsavg 85¢	$20.99	$23.07	+$2.08	49% 1751-1796 (3547)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Dayton Flyersavg 28¢	$28	$10	-$18	54% 1599-1379 (2978)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Dayton Flyersavg 20.9¢	$66.07	$8.84	-$57.23	37% 1136-1917 (3053)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Cincinnati Bearcatsavg 71¢	$3.55	$4.5	+$0.95	41% 726-1032 (1758)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Dayton Flyersavg 6¢	$0.37	$0.4	+$0.03	50% 2654-2620 (5274)

takeormake

Cincinnati Bearcats

Invested

$1,059.6

Value

$957.11

PnL

-$89.44

Record

57%

3585-2663 (6248)

NotJumpCTR

Dayton Flyers

Invested

$525

Value

$525

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

954-911 (1865)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Cincinnati Bearcats

Invested

$420

Value

$450

PnL

+$30

Record

55%

1734-1418 (3152)

nigiri99

Cincinnati Bearcats

Invested

$315.36

Value

$394.2

PnL

+$78.84

Record

51%

628-592 (1220)

38791873984189

Cincinnati Bearcats

Invested

$158.46

Value

$169.2

PnL

+$10.74

Record

47%

3487-3859 (7346)

thirdt1me<$100

Cincinnati Bearcats

Invested

$85

Value

$90

PnL

+$5

Record

48%

304-328 (632)

Flaznorp<$100

Cincinnati Bearcats

Invested

$31.71

Value

$35.67

PnL

+$3.96

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

hi774cCTR<$100

Dayton Flyers

Invested

$89.4

Value

$31.93

PnL

-$57.47

Record

23%

191-640 (831)

RN1<$100

Cincinnati Bearcats

Invested

$29.07

Value

$29.7

PnL

+$0.63

Record

55%

5637-4683 (10320)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Dayton Flyers

Invested

$66.06

Value

$26.75

PnL

-$39.31

Record

38%

1162-1897 (3059)

Pan9X<$100

Cincinnati Bearcats

Invested

$20.99

Value

$23.07

PnL

+$2.08

Record

49%

1751-1796 (3547)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Dayton Flyers

Invested

$28

Value

$10

PnL

-$18

Record

54%

1599-1379 (2978)

LimousinCTR<$100

Dayton Flyers

Invested

$66.07

Value

$8.84

PnL

-$57.23

Record

37%

1136-1917 (3053)

ameisgoat11<$100

Cincinnati Bearcats

Invested

$3.55

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.95

Record

41%

726-1032 (1758)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Dayton Flyers

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.4

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

2654-2620 (5274)

Research grade

AvoidCincinnati Bearcats at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Cincinnati Bearcats

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Cincinnati Bearcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCincinnati Bearcats 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDayton Flyers 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedCincinnati Bearcats 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Cincinnati Bearcats 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cincinnati Bearcats wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.3%

97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.