Chicago State Cougars vs. California Baptist Lancers: O/U 139.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 61¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Over39¢Under61¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$123.87

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 61¢

+16% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$805.93

Total Shares1,304

Combined PnL+$122.88

Over5 traders

Total Value$50.9

Total Shares89

Combined PnL+$0.99

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 55.6¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$71.79	57% 3234-2442 (5676)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.6¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$58.22
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.5¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$13.57
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 52.4¢	$648.58	$767.78	+$119.2	51% 1945-1901 (3846)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 46.3¢	$30.09	$29.58	-$0.51	—
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 52¢	$17.95	$20.02	+$2.07	39% 407-633 (1040)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 52.8¢	$16.52	$18.13	+$1.62	—
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$12.5	$13.37	+$0.87	55% 750-604 (1354)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$11.89	$4.63	+$0.79	51% 505-476 (981)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.05	-$0.3	34% 332-644 (976)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$1.13	$1.27	+$0.14	55% 205-165 (370)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,123.18

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$71.79

Record

57%

3234-2442 (5676)

Both legs:

Under$1,969.1755.6¢-$58.22

Over$1,154.0146.5¢-$13.57

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$648.58

Value

$767.78

PnL

+$119.2

Record

51%

1945-1901 (3846)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30.09

Value

$29.58

PnL

-$0.51

Record

—

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$17.95

Value

$20.02

PnL

+$2.07

Record

39%

407-633 (1040)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$16.52

Value

$18.13

PnL

+$1.62

Record

—

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.5

Value

$13.37

PnL

+$0.87

Record

55%

750-604 (1354)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.89

Value

$4.63

PnL

+$0.79

Record

51%

505-476 (981)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$0.3

Record

34%

332-644 (976)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.27

PnL

+$0.14

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.