Chicago State Cougars vs. California Baptist Lancers: O/U 138.5

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 60¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over40¢Under60¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 29%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$10.12

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 60¢

+10% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,731

Combined PnL-$34.67

Over5 traders

Total Value$331.68

Total Shares685

Combined PnL+$24.56

Under — 29%Over — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 54.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$34.77	57% 3234-2442 (5676)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 45¢	$225	$242.5	+$17.5	55% 205-165 (370)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$73.92	$81.48	+$7.56	55% 750-604 (1354)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 55.6¢	$12.78	$12.88	+$0.1	—
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$4.83	$4.43	-$0.4	15% 21-117 (138)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.2	-$0.2	34% 332-644 (976)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$0.97	$1.07	+$0.1	51% 1945-1901 (3846)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$1,099.53

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$34.77

Record

57%

3234-2442 (5676)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$225

Value

$242.5

PnL

+$17.5

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$73.92

Value

$81.48

PnL

+$7.56

Record

55%

750-604 (1354)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$12.78

Value

$12.88

PnL

+$0.1

Record

—

biying99999CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.83

Value

$4.43

PnL

-$0.4

Record

15%

21-117 (138)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.2

Record

34%

332-644 (976)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.97

Value

$1.07

PnL

+$0.1

Record

51%

1945-1901 (3846)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.