Spread: Seton Hall Pirates (-4.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Seton Hall Pirates (50%) · Seton Hall Pirates at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 10

Seton Hall Pirates>99¢Charlotte 49ers<1¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Seton Hall Pirates

Consensus Traders

Seton Hall Pirates 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$373.83

Smart Money Entry

48.6¢ → 99.6¢

+105% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidSeton Hall Pirates at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seton Hall Pirates

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Seton Hall Pirates100%

Charlotte 49ers0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seton Hall Pirates3 traders

Total Value$952.15

Total Shares2,093

Combined PnL-$134.71

Charlotte 49ers3 traders

Total Value$536.89

Total Shares1,479

Combined PnL-$239.12

Seton Hall Pirates — 50%Charlotte 49ers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Seton Hall Pirates. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSeton Hall Pirates 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCharlotte 49ers 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Seton Hall Pirates 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Seton Hall Piratesavg 48.5¢	$1.0K	$905.58	-$127.85	57% 3010-2261 (5271)
GL glennyorkshireCTR	Charlotte 49ersavg 52¢	$759.42	$525.75	-$233.67	51% 28-27 (55)
RN1ARB<$100	Charlotte 49ersavg 55.3¢	$273.1	$194.74	-$78.36	58% 3628-2593 (6221)
└ Seton Hall Pirates leg	Seton Hall Piratesavg 54.6¢	$123.8	$97.48	-$26.32
└ Charlotte 49ers leg	Charlotte 49ersavg 55.3¢	$149.3	$97.27	-$52.04
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Charlotte 49ersavg 57¢	$189.08	$129.27	-$47.29	48% 603-645 (1248)
└ Seton Hall Pirates leg	Seton Hall Piratesavg 48.9¢	$75.41	$66.27	-$10.54
└ Charlotte 49ers leg	Charlotte 49ersavg 57¢	$99.75	$63	-$36.75
FL Flaznorp<$100	Seton Hall Piratesavg 44.3¢	$36.82	$35.41	-$1.41	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Seton Hall Piratesavg 64¢	$16.62	$11.17	-$5.45	56% 403-323 (726)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Charlotte 49ersavg 56¢	$29.6	$7.19	-$4.2	47% 329-371 (700)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Charlotte 49ersavg 52¢	$5.2	$3.95	-$1.25	20% 113-461 (574)

HomeRunHazard

Seton Hall Pirates

Invested

$1,033.42

Value

$905.58

PnL

-$127.85

Record

57%

3010-2261 (5271)

glennyorkshireCTR

Charlotte 49ers

Invested

$759.42

Value

$525.75

PnL

-$233.67

Record

51%

28-27 (55)

RN1ARB<$100

Charlotte 49ers

Invested

$273.1

Value

$194.74

PnL

-$78.36

Record

58%

3628-2593 (6221)

Both legs:

Seton Hall Pirates$123.854.6¢-$26.32

Charlotte 49ers$149.355.3¢-$52.04

38791873984189ARB<$100

Charlotte 49ers

Invested

$189.08

Value

$129.27

PnL

-$47.29

Record

48%

603-645 (1248)

Both legs:

Seton Hall Pirates$75.4148.9¢-$10.54

Charlotte 49ers$99.7557¢-$36.75

Flaznorp<$100

Seton Hall Pirates

Invested

$36.82

Value

$35.41

PnL

-$1.41

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Seton Hall Pirates

Invested

$16.62

Value

$11.17

PnL

-$5.45

Record

56%

403-323 (726)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Charlotte 49ers

Invested

$29.6

Value

$7.19

PnL

-$4.2

Record

47%

329-371 (700)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Charlotte 49ers

Invested

$5.2

Value

$3.95

PnL

-$1.25

Record

20%

113-461 (574)

Research grade

AvoidSeton Hall Pirates at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Seton Hall Pirates

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Seton Hall Pirates. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSeton Hall Pirates 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCharlotte 49ers 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Seton Hall Pirates 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seton Hall Pirates wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.