Charlotte 49ers vs. Seton Hall Pirates

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Seton Hall Pirates (38%) · Seton Hall Pirates at 87¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 9

Charlotte 49ers14¢Seton Hall Pirates86¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Seton Hall Pirates

Consensus Traders

Seton Hall Pirates 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$47.42

Smart Money Entry

66.1¢ → 86.5¢

+31% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidSeton Hall Pirates at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seton Hall Pirates

3 of 8 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Charlotte 49ers14%

Seton Hall Pirates87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seton Hall Pirates3 traders

Total Value$295.61

Total Shares397

Combined PnL+$24.86

Charlotte 49ers5 traders

Total Value$116.34

Total Shares408

Combined PnL+$22.56

Seton Hall Pirates — 38%Charlotte 49ers — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Seton Hall Pirates. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpCharlotte 49ers 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrCharlotte 49ers 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Charlotte 49ers 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Seton Hall Piratesavg 60.4¢	$526.53	$539.66	-$20.07	51% 507-483 (990)
└ Seton Hall Pirates leg	Seton Hall Piratesavg 60.4¢	$286.5	$396.19	+$76.48
└ Charlotte 49ers leg	Charlotte 49ersavg 27.6¢	$240.03	$143.47	-$96.55
RN1ARB<$100	Charlotte 49ersavg 36.8¢	$460.75	$484.08	+$23.33	51% 289-274 (563)
└ Seton Hall Pirates leg	Seton Hall Piratesavg 73.1¢	$268.22	$262.41	-$5.81
└ Charlotte 49ers leg	Charlotte 49ersavg 36.8¢	$285.87	$221.68	+$29.15
38 38791873984189	Seton Hall Piratesavg 65.5¢	$245.07	$227.46	+$17.12	48% 436-463 (899)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Charlotte 49ersavg 35¢	$57.51	$71.26	+$13.75	28% 122-309 (431)
PA Pan9X<$100	Seton Hall Piratesavg 71.1¢	$50.62	$53.39	+$5.36	49% 194-203 (397)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Charlotte 49ersavg 31.1¢	$18.18	$27.05	+$8.86	55% 1053-856 (1909)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Charlotte 49ersavg 31¢	$16.5	$15.17	-$1.33	69% 34-15 (49)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100	Seton Hall Piratesavg 60¢	$12.39	$14.76	+$2.37	50% 21-21 (42)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Charlotte 49ersavg 35¢	$0.93	$1.43	+$0.5	18% 55-248 (303)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Charlotte 49ersavg 30¢	$0.65	$1.42	+$0.78	53% 218-191 (409)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Seton Hall Pirates

Invested

$526.53

Value

$539.66

PnL

-$20.07

Record

51%

507-483 (990)

Both legs:

Seton Hall Pirates$286.560.4¢+$76.48

Charlotte 49ers$240.0327.6¢-$96.55

RN1ARB<$100

Charlotte 49ers

Invested

$460.75

Value

$484.08

PnL

+$23.33

Record

51%

289-274 (563)

Both legs:

Seton Hall Pirates$268.2273.1¢-$5.81

Charlotte 49ers$285.8736.8¢+$29.15

38791873984189

Seton Hall Pirates

Invested

$245.07

Value

$227.46

PnL

+$17.12

Record

48%

436-463 (899)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Charlotte 49ers

Invested

$57.51

Value

$71.26

PnL

+$13.75

Record

28%

122-309 (431)

Pan9X<$100

Seton Hall Pirates

Invested

$50.62

Value

$53.39

PnL

+$5.36

Record

49%

194-203 (397)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Charlotte 49ers

Invested

$18.18

Value

$27.05

PnL

+$8.86

Record

55%

1053-856 (1909)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Charlotte 49ers

Invested

$16.5

Value

$15.17

PnL

-$1.33

Record

69%

34-15 (49)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100

Seton Hall Pirates

Invested

$12.39

Value

$14.76

PnL

+$2.37

Record

50%

21-21 (42)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Charlotte 49ers

Invested

$0.93

Value

$1.43

PnL

+$0.5

Record

18%

55-248 (303)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Charlotte 49ers

Invested

$0.65

Value

$1.42

PnL

+$0.78

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

Research grade

AvoidSeton Hall Pirates at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Seton Hall Pirates

3 of 8 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Seton Hall Pirates. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpCharlotte 49ers 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrCharlotte 49ers 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Charlotte 49ers 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seton Hall Pirates wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.