Charleston Cougars vs. Temple Owls: O/U 155.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 72¢ · $956 held · ended Nov 11

Over72¢Under28¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$956.19

Combined PnL

-$23.3

Smart Money Entry

57.3¢ → 72¢

+26% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over72%

Under28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$374.43

Total Shares669

Combined PnL-$8.34

Under2 traders

Total Value$134.69

Total Shares306

Combined PnL-$14.96

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 55.7¢	$315.04	$316.96	+$1.92	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 45.6¢	$213.24	$208.01	-$5.23	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.6¢	$144.72	$139.49	-$5.23
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$68.52	$68.52	-$0
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 55.9¢	$218.68	$174.21	+$19.96	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.9¢	$130.95	$131.25	+$10.2
└ Under leg	Underavg 34¢	$33.19	$42.95	+$9.76
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 49¢	$148.83	$133.64	-$15.19	55% 719-584 (1303)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 44.1¢	$65.75	$64.86	-$0.89	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.1¢	$43.13	$43.02	-$0.11
└ Over leg	Overavg 58¢	$22.62	$21.84	-$0.78
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 66¢	$67.73	$57.47	-$10.26	58% 3212-2312 (5524)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$0.82	$1.05	+$0.23	34% 327-634 (961)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$315.04

Value

$316.96

PnL

+$1.92

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$213.24

Value

$208.01

PnL

-$5.23

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

Both legs:

Under$144.7245.6¢-$5.23

Over$68.5256¢-$0

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$218.68

Value

$174.21

PnL

+$19.96

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

Both legs:

Over$130.9555.9¢+$10.2

Under$33.1934¢+$9.76

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$148.83

Value

$133.64

PnL

-$15.19

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$65.75

Value

$64.86

PnL

-$0.89

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

Both legs:

Under$43.1344.1¢-$0.11

Over$22.6258¢-$0.78

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$67.73

Value

$57.47

PnL

-$10.26

Record

58%

3212-2312 (5524)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.82

Value

$1.05

PnL

+$0.23

Record

34%

327-634 (961)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.