Campbell Fighting Camels vs. Western Michigan Broncos

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Western Michigan Broncos (70%) · Western Michigan Broncos at 77¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 8

Campbell Fighting Camels24¢Western Michigan Broncos76¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Western Michigan Broncos

Consensus Traders

Western Michigan Broncos 70%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

-$296.85

Smart Money Entry

65.2¢ → 76.5¢

+17% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidWestern Michigan Broncos at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Western Michigan Broncos

7 of 10 top traders (70%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Campbell Fighting Camels24%

Western Michigan Broncos77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Western Michigan Broncos7 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares6,099

Combined PnL-$5.82

Campbell Fighting Camels3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares6,120

Combined PnL-$291.04

Western Michigan Broncos — 70%Campbell Fighting Camels — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Western Michigan Broncos. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWestern Michigan Broncos 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrWestern Michigan Broncos 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedWestern Michigan Broncos 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Western Michigan Broncos 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Western Michigan Broncosavg 64¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$0.28	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
nigiri99CTR	Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 36¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$22.45	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Western Michigan Broncosavg 76¢	$970	$882.5	-$87.5	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
HI hi774c	Western Michigan Broncosavg 64¢	$1.3K	$845.08	+$6.55	46% 5617-6532 (12149)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 25¢	$505.67	$618.01	+$112.34	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
└ Western Michigan Broncos leg	Western Michigan Broncosavg 44.3¢	$181.24	$312.67	+$131.43
└ Campbell Fighting Camels leg	Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 25¢	$324.43	$305.34	-$19.09
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 29.5¢	$439.65	$390	-$49.64	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
└ Campbell Fighting Camels leg	Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 29.5¢	$294.82	$235.02	-$59.8
└ Western Michigan Broncos leg	Western Michigan Broncosavg 71.5¢	$144.83	$154.98	+$10.16
0xheavy888	Western Michigan Broncosavg 64.3¢	$363.96	$365.02	+$1.06	56% 8753-6943 (15696)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 46.9¢	$552.35	$353.21	-$199.14	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
38 38791873984189	Western Michigan Broncosavg 53¢	$252	$321.69	+$69.69	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Western Michigan Broncosavg 62.5¢	$256.89	$296.09	+$39.19	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
└ Western Michigan Broncos leg	Western Michigan Broncosavg 62.5¢	$192.5	$235.56	+$43.06
└ Campbell Fighting Camels leg	Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 25¢	$64.39	$60.53	-$3.86
RN1ARB<$100	Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 51¢	$350.82	$288.53	-$62.3	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
└ Western Michigan Broncos leg	Western Michigan Broncosavg 46¢	$95.82	$151.03	+$55.2
└ Campbell Fighting Camels leg	Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 51¢	$255	$137.5	-$117.5
VE VenusianARB<$100	Western Michigan Broncosavg 36¢	$104.83	$137	+$32.17	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
└ Campbell Fighting Camels leg	Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 38.9¢	$46.14	$69.34	+$23.2
└ Western Michigan Broncos leg	Western Michigan Broncosavg 36¢	$58.69	$67.66	+$8.97
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 37.1¢	$189.45	$120	-$69.46	46% 1997-2348 (4345)
PA Pan9X<$100	Western Michigan Broncosavg 55.1¢	$76.21	$53.42	+$4.26	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Western Michigan Broncosavg 67¢	$6.6	$6.45	-$0.15	52% 9497-8605 (18102)

HomeRunHazard

Western Michigan Broncos

Invested

$1,781.36

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$0.28

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

nigiri99CTR

Campbell Fighting Camels

Invested

$1,619.95

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$22.45

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Western Michigan Broncos

Invested

$970

Value

$882.5

PnL

-$87.5

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

hi774c

Western Michigan Broncos

Invested

$1,310.2

Value

$845.08

PnL

+$6.55

Record

46%

5617-6532 (12149)

LimousinARB<$100

Campbell Fighting Camels

Invested

$505.67

Value

$618.01

PnL

+$112.34

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

Both legs:

Western Michigan Broncos$181.2444.3¢+$131.43

Campbell Fighting Camels$324.4325¢-$19.09

MadridTimeARB<$100

Campbell Fighting Camels

Invested

$439.65

Value

$390

PnL

-$49.64

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

Both legs:

Campbell Fighting Camels$294.8229.5¢-$59.8

Western Michigan Broncos$144.8371.5¢+$10.16

0xheavy888

Western Michigan Broncos

Invested

$363.96

Value

$365.02

PnL

+$1.06

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

FlaznorpCTR

Campbell Fighting Camels

Invested

$552.35

Value

$353.21

PnL

-$199.14

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

38791873984189

Western Michigan Broncos

Invested

$252

Value

$321.69

PnL

+$69.69

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Western Michigan Broncos

Invested

$256.89

Value

$296.09

PnL

+$39.19

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

Both legs:

Western Michigan Broncos$192.562.5¢+$43.06

Campbell Fighting Camels$64.3925¢-$3.86

RN1ARB<$100

Campbell Fighting Camels

Invested

$350.82

Value

$288.53

PnL

-$62.3

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Both legs:

Western Michigan Broncos$95.8246¢+$55.2

Campbell Fighting Camels$25551¢-$117.5

VenusianARB<$100

Western Michigan Broncos

Invested

$104.83

Value

$137

PnL

+$32.17

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

Both legs:

Campbell Fighting Camels$46.1438.9¢+$23.2

Western Michigan Broncos$58.6936¢+$8.97

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Campbell Fighting Camels

Invested

$189.45

Value

$120

PnL

-$69.46

Record

46%

1997-2348 (4345)

Pan9X<$100

Western Michigan Broncos

Invested

$76.21

Value

$53.42

PnL

+$4.26

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

ameisgoat11<$100

Western Michigan Broncos

Invested

$6.6

Value

$6.45

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

9497-8605 (18102)

Research grade

AvoidWestern Michigan Broncos at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Western Michigan Broncos

7 of 10 top traders (70%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Western Michigan Broncos. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWestern Michigan Broncos 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrWestern Michigan Broncos 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedWestern Michigan Broncos 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Western Michigan Broncos 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Western Michigan Broncos wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.