Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold East Tennessee State Buccaneers, while the market favors Campbell Fighting Camels (52%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: East Tennessee State Buccaneers (-4.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold East Tennessee State Buccaneers (78%) · East Tennessee State Buccaneers at 49¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 12

East Tennessee State Buccaneers49¢Campbell Fighting Camels51¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Consensus Traders

East Tennessee State Buccaneers 78%

Total Value

$13.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 48.5¢

-3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidEast Tennessee State Buccaneers at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Campbell Fighting Camels 52%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

East Tennessee State Buccaneers49%

Campbell Fighting Camels52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

East Tennessee State Buccaneers7 traders

Total Value$13.5K

Total Shares29,620

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Campbell Fighting Camels2 traders

Total Value$30.13

Total Shares64

Combined PnL+$0.69

East Tennessee State Buccaneers — 78%Campbell Fighting Camels — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on East Tennessee State Buccaneers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperEast Tennessee State Buccaneers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrEast Tennessee State Buccaneers 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedEast Tennessee State Buccaneers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000East Tennessee State Buccaneers 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
yabanciCTR	East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 50¢	$7.2K	$6.3K	-$941.52	—
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 51.1¢	$7.0K	$6.1K	-$856.45	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
HI hi774cCTR	East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 50¢	$515.98	$448.9	-$67.08	14% 77-472 (549)
0xheavy888CTR	East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 50¢	$332	$288.84	-$43.16	55% 205-165 (370)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 27¢	$135	$217.5	+$82.5	55% 719-584 (1303)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 50¢	$95	$43.5	-$4.17	52% 497-452 (949)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 53¢	$47.32	$41.97	-$5.36	49% 57-60 (117)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 45.8¢	$24.79	$25.43	+$0.64	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 46.5¢	$4.65	$4.7	+$0.05	34% 327-634 (961)

yabanciCTR

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Invested

$7,242.5

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$941.52

Record

—

HomeRunHazardCTR

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Invested

$6,994.23

Value

$6.1K

PnL

-$856.45

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

hi774cCTR

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Invested

$515.98

Value

$448.9

PnL

-$67.08

Record

14%

77-472 (549)

0xheavy888CTR

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Invested

$332

Value

$288.84

PnL

-$43.16

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Invested

$135

Value

$217.5

PnL

+$82.5

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Invested

$95

Value

$43.5

PnL

-$4.17

Record

52%

497-452 (949)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Invested

$47.32

Value

$41.97

PnL

-$5.36

Record

49%

57-60 (117)

Flaznorp<$100

Campbell Fighting Camels

Invested

$24.79

Value

$25.43

PnL

+$0.64

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

ameisgoat11<$100

Campbell Fighting Camels

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$0.05

Record

34%

327-634 (961)

Research grade

AvoidEast Tennessee State Buccaneers at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Campbell Fighting Camels 52%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on East Tennessee State Buccaneers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperEast Tennessee State Buccaneers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrEast Tennessee State Buccaneers 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedEast Tennessee State Buccaneers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000East Tennessee State Buccaneers 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that East Tennessee State Buccaneers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.