Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (72%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Brown Bears vs. Siena Saints: O/U 158.5

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 28¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Over72¢Under28¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 25%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$104.36

Smart Money Entry

53.2¢ → 28¢

-47% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Over 72%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over72%

Under28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$452.35

Total Shares1,498

Combined PnL-$344.07

Over6 traders

Total Value$688.97

Total Shares971

Combined PnL+$239.71

Under — 25%Over — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8cBbF4e3d2D0b6Fb7b684cF1f5EE12d79dFCE8A8-1772503424879CTR	Underavg 53.3¢	$775.35	$428.95	-$346.4	— 9-10 (19)
0xheavy888	Overavg 46¢	$210.71	$350.41	+$139.71	56% 566-451 (1017)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 47¢	$118.44	$192.78	+$74.34	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 47¢	$70.5	$114.75	+$44.25	47% 3487-3859 (7346)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$21.07	$23.4	+$2.33	56% 3745-2909 (6654)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 46¢	$46	$23	-$23	54% 1599-1379 (2978)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Overavg 23¢	$1.26	$4.2	+$2.94	55% 1734-1418 (3152)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 47¢	$2.35	$3.83	+$1.48	41% 726-1032 (1758)

0x8cBbF4e3d2D0b6Fb7b684cF1f5EE12d79dFCE8A8-1772503424879CTR

Under

Invested

$775.35

Value

$428.95

PnL

-$346.4

Record

—

9-10 (19)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$210.71

Value

$350.41

PnL

+$139.71

Record

56%

566-451 (1017)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$118.44

Value

$192.78

PnL

+$74.34

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$70.5

Value

$114.75

PnL

+$44.25

Record

47%

3487-3859 (7346)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.07

Value

$23.4

PnL

+$2.33

Record

56%

3745-2909 (6654)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$46

Value

$23

PnL

-$23

Record

54%

1599-1379 (2978)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Over

Invested

$1.26

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$2.94

Record

55%

1734-1418 (3152)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$2.35

Value

$3.83

PnL

+$1.48

Record

41%

726-1032 (1758)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Over 72%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.0%

28.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$233.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

333.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.