Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bradley Braves vs. Coppin State Eagles: O/U 135.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 50¢ · $82 held · ended Nov 12

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$81.76

Combined PnL

$5.8

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$51.72

Total Shares91

Combined PnL+$6.74

Over4 traders

Total Value$30.04

Total Shares63

Combined PnL-$0.94

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 52¢	$20.28	$23.79	+$3.51	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 48.2¢	$19.25	$19.96	+$0.71	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
RN1<$100	Underavg 49¢	$18.85	$19.42	+$0.58	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Underavg 42¢	$3.76	$5.46	+$1.7	54% 1122-947 (2069)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 58¢	$5.81	$5.01	-$0.8	49% 1386-1434 (2820)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Overavg 44¢	$3.52	$3.12	-$0.4	53% 99-88 (187)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 42¢	$2.1	$3.05	+$0.95	51% 2112-2051 (4163)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.4	$1.95	-$0.45	38% 509-821 (1330)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$20.28

Value

$23.79

PnL

+$3.51

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$19.25

Value

$19.96

PnL

+$0.71

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$18.85

Value

$19.42

PnL

+$0.58

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Under

Invested

$3.76

Value

$5.46

PnL

+$1.7

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$5.81

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$0.8

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Over

Invested

$3.52

Value

$3.12

PnL

-$0.4

Record

53%

99-88 (187)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$2.1

Value

$3.05

PnL

+$0.95

Record

51%

2112-2051 (4163)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$0.45

Record

38%

509-821 (1330)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.