Bradley Braves vs. Coppin State Eagles: O/U 133.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 57¢ · $168 held · ended Nov 12

Over57¢Under43¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

Total Value

$167.69

Combined PnL

$20.05

Research grade

AvoidOver at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$96.92

Total Shares156

Combined PnL+$1.68

Over5 traders

Total Value$70.76

Total Shares130

Combined PnL+$18.37

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 61¢	$48.44	$49.23	+$0.79	54% 1122-947 (2069)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 62¢	$39.34	$39.33	-$0.01	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 39¢	$19.27	$28.16	+$8.89	35% 217-405 (622)
SM smithagent<$100	Overavg 39¢	$12.09	$17.67	+$5.58	43% 400-536 (936)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Overavg 39¢	$11.7	$17.1	+$5.4	63% 392-229 (621)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$5.3	$6.2	+$0.9	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 46¢	$4.63	$3.93	-$0.71	56% 312-248 (560)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 47¢	$4.7	$3.9	-$0.8	38% 509-821 (1330)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 62¢	$2.16	$2.16	-$0	56% 4589-3558 (8147)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$48.44

Value

$49.23

PnL

+$0.79

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$39.34

Value

$39.33

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$19.27

Value

$28.16

PnL

+$8.89

Record

35%

217-405 (622)

smithagent<$100

Over

Invested

$12.09

Value

$17.67

PnL

+$5.58

Record

43%

400-536 (936)

suitcase6628<$100

Over

Invested

$11.7

Value

$17.1

PnL

+$5.4

Record

63%

392-229 (621)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.3

Value

$6.2

PnL

+$0.9

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$4.63

Value

$3.93

PnL

-$0.71

Record

56%

312-248 (560)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$4.7

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$0.8

Record

38%

509-821 (1330)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.16

Value

$2.16

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.