Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Coppin State Eagles, while the market favors Bradley Braves (84%). 9 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bradley Braves vs. Coppin State Eagles

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Coppin State Eagles (64%) · Coppin State Eagles at 17¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Bradley Braves84¢Coppin State Eagles16¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Coppin State Eagles

Consensus Traders

Coppin State Eagles 64%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$84.27

Smart Money Entry

10.2¢ → 16.5¢

+63% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidCoppin State Eagles at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Coppin State Eagles

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Bradley Braves 84%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bradley Braves84%

Coppin State Eagles17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Coppin State Eagles9 traders

Total Value$873.87

Total Shares7,783

Combined PnL+$68.75

Bradley Braves5 traders

Total Value$319.84

Total Shares359

Combined PnL+$15.51

Coppin State Eagles — 64%Bradley Braves — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Coppin State Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBradley Braves 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCoppin State Eagles 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedCoppin State Eagles 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Coppin State Eagles 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO forecastication4CTR	Coppin State Eaglesavg 10¢	$656.3	$721.93	+$65.63	28% 110-277 (387)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Bradley Bravesavg 50¢	$1.2K	$203.81	+$12.53	82% 97-22 (119)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Bradley Bravesavg 82.6¢	$42.36	$45.64	+$3.28	47% 564-628 (1192)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Coppin State Eaglesavg 15¢	$61.62	$45.32	-$16.3	52% 388-362 (750)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Bradley Bravesavg 89¢	$43.69	$43.69	-$0	54% 1122-947 (2069)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Coppin State Eaglesavg 7.9¢	$33.84	$41.84	+$8	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
CM cm2897CTR<$100	Coppin State Eaglesavg 8¢	$16.32	$22.44	+$6.12	49% 1124-1167 (2291)
38 38791873984189CTR	Coppin State Eaglesavg 10.7¢	$210.32	$18.17	+$2.86	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
RN1CTR<$100	Coppin State Eaglesavg 9.4¢	$14.5	$16.95	+$2.46	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
SA Sassy-Bucket<$100	Bradley Bravesavg 87¢	$13.05	$13.35	+$0.3	36% 10-18 (28)
TH thirdt1me<$100	Bradley Bravesavg 93¢	$13.95	$13.35	-$0.6	46% 180-208 (388)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Coppin State Eaglesavg 13¢	$3.96	$3.35	-$0.61	51% 2112-2051 (4163)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Coppin State Eaglesavg 8.6¢	$2.15	$2.75	+$0.6	49% 1386-1434 (2820)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Coppin State Eaglesavg 11¢	$1.11	$1.11	-$0	49% 1100-1151 (2251)

forecastication4CTR

Coppin State Eagles

Invested

$656.3

Value

$721.93

PnL

+$65.63

Record

28%

110-277 (387)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Bradley Braves

Invested

$1,248

Value

$203.81

PnL

+$12.53

Record

82%

97-22 (119)

SnakeBall<$100

Bradley Braves

Invested

$42.36

Value

$45.64

PnL

+$3.28

Record

47%

564-628 (1192)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Coppin State Eagles

Invested

$61.62

Value

$45.32

PnL

-$16.3

Record

52%

388-362 (750)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Bradley Braves

Invested

$43.69

Value

$43.69

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Coppin State Eagles

Invested

$33.84

Value

$41.84

PnL

+$8

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

cm2897CTR<$100

Coppin State Eagles

Invested

$16.32

Value

$22.44

PnL

+$6.12

Record

49%

1124-1167 (2291)

38791873984189CTR

Coppin State Eagles

Invested

$210.32

Value

$18.17

PnL

+$2.86

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

RN1CTR<$100

Coppin State Eagles

Invested

$14.5

Value

$16.95

PnL

+$2.46

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

Sassy-Bucket<$100

Bradley Braves

Invested

$13.05

Value

$13.35

PnL

+$0.3

Record

36%

10-18 (28)

thirdt1me<$100

Bradley Braves

Invested

$13.95

Value

$13.35

PnL

-$0.6

Record

46%

180-208 (388)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Coppin State Eagles

Invested

$3.96

Value

$3.35

PnL

-$0.61

Record

51%

2112-2051 (4163)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Coppin State Eagles

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$0.6

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Coppin State Eagles

Invested

$1.11

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

Research grade

AvoidCoppin State Eagles at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Coppin State Eagles

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Bradley Braves 84%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Coppin State Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBradley Braves 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCoppin State Eagles 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedCoppin State Eagles 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Coppin State Eagles 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Coppin State Eagles wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.2%

16.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$448.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

548.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.