Boise State Broncos vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers: O/U 158.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 51¢ · $760 held · ended Nov 15

Over51¢Under49¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

Total Value

$759.6

Combined PnL

$103.02

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 50.5¢

-15% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$611.83

Total Shares943

Combined PnL+$53.27

Under5 traders

Total Value$147.77

Total Shares339

Combined PnL+$49.75

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 51.8¢	$209.48	$234.6	+$25.12	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 80.9¢	$184.43	$197.09	+$12.67	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
HI hi774c	Overavg 52.6¢	$149.57	$165.05	+$15.48	26% 249-695 (944)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$42.43	$93.79	+$51.36	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$48	$46.5	-$1.5	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
RN1<$100	Overavg 58¢	$15.08	$15.08	-$0	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Underavg 50¢	$4.0K	$2.97	+$0.04	64% 145-83 (228)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.33	-$0.13	43% 867-1151 (2018)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.21	$2.18	-$0.02	48% 3997-4384 (8381)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$209.48

Value

$234.6

PnL

+$25.12

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$184.43

Value

$197.09

PnL

+$12.67

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$149.57

Value

$165.05

PnL

+$15.48

Record

26%

249-695 (944)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$42.43

Value

$93.79

PnL

+$51.36

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$48

Value

$46.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$15.08

Value

$15.08

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Under

Invested

$4,000

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.04

Record

64%

145-83 (228)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.13

Record

43%

867-1151 (2018)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.21

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.