Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (69%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Arizona Wildcats vs. Auburn Tigers: O/U 158.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 31¢ · $360 held · ended Nov 14

Over31¢Under69¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

Total Value

$359.89

Combined PnL

-$9.75

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 31¢

-38% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 31%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Under 69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over31%

Under69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$193.8

Total Shares436

Combined PnL-$25.25

Under4 traders

Total Value$166.09

Total Shares266

Combined PnL+$15.5

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Overavg 51¢	$175.85	$172.4	-$3.45	2% 12-511 (523)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 49¢	$73.5	$75	+$1.5	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Underavg 53¢	$46.18	$65.35	+$19.17	54% 1316-1100 (2416)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 72¢	$26.18	$20.71	-$5.47	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$17.39	$7.96	-$9.44	47% 860-963 (1823)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$14.1	$6.45	-$7.65	64% 527-296 (823)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 47¢	$4.74	$5.04	+$0.3	53% 1179-1029 (2208)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$8.46	$3.87	-$4.59	44% 599-749 (1348)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$3.25	$3.13	-$0.13	57% 3567-2709 (6276)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Over

Invested

$175.85

Value

$172.4

PnL

-$3.45

Record

12-511 (523)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$73.5

Value

$75

PnL

+$1.5

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Under

Invested

$46.18

Value

$65.35

PnL

+$19.17

Record

54%

1316-1100 (2416)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$26.18

Value

$20.71

PnL

-$5.47

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.39

Value

$7.96

PnL

-$9.44

Record

47%

860-963 (1823)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.1

Value

$6.45

PnL

-$7.65

Record

64%

527-296 (823)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$4.74

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$0.3

Record

53%

1179-1029 (2208)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.46

Value

$3.87

PnL

-$4.59

Record

44%

599-749 (1348)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.13

PnL

-$0.13

Record

57%

3567-2709 (6276)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 31%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Under 69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.1%

31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$202.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

302.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.