Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (63%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Arizona Wildcats vs. Auburn Tigers: O/U 157.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 38¢ · $185 held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 57%
$184.87
-$109.62
44.6¢ → 37.5¢
-16% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 38%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Under 63%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO Forecastication2CTR | Overavg 49¢ | $159.74 | $84.76 | -$74.98 | 45% 224-276 (500) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 44.6¢ | $63.04 | $36.72 | -$26.33 | 56% 5073-4021 (9094) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 26¢ | $28.95 | $29.64 | +$0.68 | 48% 2942-3249 (6191) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $11.61 | $13.51 | +$1.9 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $24.91 | $12.22 | -$12.69 | 57% 3570-2717 (6287) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $3.78 | $5.18 | +$1.4 | 55% 1350-1126 (2476) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.85 | +$0.4 | 49% 1883-1987 (3870) |
Invested
$159.74
Value
$84.76
PnL
-$74.98
Record
45%
224-276 (500)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$63.04
Value
$36.72
PnL
-$26.33
Record
56%
5073-4021 (9094)
Invested
$28.95
Value
$29.64
PnL
+$0.68
Record
48%
2942-3249 (6191)
Invested
$11.61
Value
$13.51
PnL
+$1.9
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
Invested
$24.91
Value
$12.22
PnL
-$12.69
Record
57%
3570-2717 (6287)
Invested
$3.78
Value
$5.18
PnL
+$1.4
Record
55%
1350-1126 (2476)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.85
PnL
+$0.4
Record
49%
1883-1987 (3870)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.