Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Arizona Wildcats, while the market favors Auburn Tigers (58%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-1.5)

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Arizona Wildcats (86%) · Arizona Wildcats at 42¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Arizona Wildcats42¢Auburn Tigers58¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Arizona Wildcats

Consensus Traders

Arizona Wildcats 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$175.72

Smart Money Entry

72.2¢ → 42¢

-42% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidArizona Wildcats at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arizona Wildcats

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Auburn Tigers 58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Arizona Wildcats42%

Auburn Tigers58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Auburn Tigers1 trader

Total Value$732.09

Total Shares1,266

Combined PnL+$446.65

Arizona Wildcats6 traders

Total Value$978.34

Total Shares1,671

Combined PnL-$270.92

Auburn Tigers — 14%Arizona Wildcats — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Arizona Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrArizona Wildcats 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedArizona Wildcats 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Arizona Wildcats 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Auburn Tigersavg 22.2¢	$285.44	$732.09	+$446.65	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
TA takeormakeCTR	Arizona Wildcatsavg 77¢	$969.97	$629.58	-$340.39	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Arizona Wildcatsavg 54¢	$131.75	$156.11	+$24.36	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
RN1CTR<$100	Arizona Wildcatsavg 60¢	$71.19	$94.92	+$23.73	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
SU suntoriARB<$100	Auburn Tigersavg 46¢	$95.22	$88.71	-$6.51	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
└ Arizona Wildcats leg	Arizona Wildcatsavg 56¢	$47.61	$68.01	+$20.4
└ Auburn Tigers leg	Auburn Tigersavg 46¢	$47.61	$20.7	-$26.91
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Arizona Wildcatsavg 60¢	$53.75	$71.66	+$17.92	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Arizona Wildcatsavg 60¢	$14.51	$14.08	-$0.43	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Arizona Wildcatsavg 54¢	$8.1	$12	+$3.9	40% 614-914 (1528)

Flaznorp

Auburn Tigers

Invested

$285.44

Value

$732.09

PnL

+$446.65

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

takeormakeCTR

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$969.97

Value

$629.58

PnL

-$340.39

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$131.75

Value

$156.11

PnL

+$24.36

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

RN1CTR<$100

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$71.19

Value

$94.92

PnL

+$23.73

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

suntoriARB<$100

Auburn Tigers

Invested

$95.22

Value

$88.71

PnL

-$6.51

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

Both legs:

Arizona Wildcats$47.6156¢+$20.4

Auburn Tigers$47.6146¢-$26.91

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$53.75

Value

$71.66

PnL

+$17.92

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$14.51

Value

$14.08

PnL

-$0.43

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$8.1

Value

$12

PnL

+$3.9

Record

40%

614-914 (1528)

Research grade

AvoidArizona Wildcats at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Arizona Wildcats

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Auburn Tigers 58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Arizona Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrArizona Wildcats 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedArizona Wildcats 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Arizona Wildcats 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arizona Wildcats wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.2%

42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$126.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

226.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.