Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-2.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Virginia Cavaliers (50%) · Virginia Cavaliers at 96¢ · $687 held · ended Nov 8

Virginia Cavaliers96¢Arkansas Razorbacks4¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Virginia Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Virginia Cavaliers 50%

Total Value

$687.24

Combined PnL

-$46.45

Smart Money Entry

84.1¢ → 95.5¢

+14% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidVirginia Cavaliers at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Virginia Cavaliers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Virginia Cavaliers96%

Arkansas Razorbacks5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Virginia Cavaliers4 traders

Total Value$600.33

Total Shares658

Combined PnL+$12.04

Arkansas Razorbacks4 traders

Total Value$86.91

Total Shares940

Combined PnL-$58.49

Virginia Cavaliers — 50%Arkansas Razorbacks — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Virginia Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Arkansas Razorbacks) and the top 1000 (5 on Virginia Cavaliers) disagree here.

whaleVirginia Cavaliers 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrArkansas Razorbacks 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedArkansas Razorbacks 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Virginia Cavaliers 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Virginia Cavaliersavg 94¢	$467.96	$472.94	+$4.98	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
HO HomeRunHazard	Virginia Cavaliersavg 53.4¢	$109.36	$112.47	+$3.11	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Arkansas Razorbacksavg 9.4¢	$65.72	$34.89	-$30.83	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Arkansas Razorbacksavg 46.3¢	$34.03	$28.37	-$5.65	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
VeryLucky888CTR	Arkansas Razorbacksavg 43.2¢	$100	$21.5	-$21.71	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
PA Pan9X<$100	Virginia Cavaliersavg 52¢	$15.68	$12.5	+$3.54	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
RN1<$100	Virginia Cavaliersavg 65¢	$3.09	$2.42	+$0.42	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Arkansas Razorbacksavg 47.5¢	$2.45	$2.15	-$0.3	52% 9497-8605 (18102)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$467.96

Value

$472.94

PnL

+$4.98

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

HomeRunHazard

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$109.36

Value

$112.47

PnL

+$3.11

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Arkansas Razorbacks

Invested

$65.72

Value

$34.89

PnL

-$30.83

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Arkansas Razorbacks

Invested

$34.03

Value

$28.37

PnL

-$5.65

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

VeryLucky888CTR

Arkansas Razorbacks

Invested

$100

Value

$21.5

PnL

-$21.71

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

Pan9X<$100

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$15.68

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$3.54

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

RN1<$100

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$3.09

Value

$2.42

PnL

+$0.42

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Arkansas Razorbacks

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.3

Record

52%

9497-8605 (18102)

Research grade

AvoidVirginia Cavaliers at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Virginia Cavaliers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Virginia Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Arkansas Razorbacks) and the top 1000 (5 on Virginia Cavaliers) disagree here.

whaleVirginia Cavaliers 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrArkansas Razorbacks 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedArkansas Razorbacks 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Virginia Cavaliers 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Virginia Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.