SC Paderborn 07 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 1.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$890.72

Smart Money Entry

86.3¢ → 100¢

+16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,874

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Under5 traders

Total Value$765.41

Total Shares3,458

Combined PnL+$272.5

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Overavg 86.6¢	$3.0K	$1.8K	$-1.2K	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 14¢	$161.3	$564.56	+$403.26	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 84.5¢	$168.15	$198.9	+$30.75	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 14¢	$248.69	$195.08	-$53.6	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 84¢	$134.09	$159.55	+$25.46	56% 8730-6789 (15519)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 84.2¢	$51.35	$60.97	+$9.62	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 14¢	$1.1	$3.86	+$2.76	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 15¢	$0.5	$1.64	+$1.14	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 15.6¢	$81.31	$0.26	-$81.05	49% 1800-1900 (3700)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$2,990.59

Value

$1.8K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$161.3

Value

$564.56

PnL

+$403.26

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$168.15

Value

$198.9

PnL

+$30.75

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$248.69

Value

$195.08

PnL

-$53.6

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$134.09

Value

$159.55

PnL

+$25.46

Record

56%

8730-6789 (15519)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$51.35

Value

$60.97

PnL

+$9.62

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.1

Value

$3.86

PnL

+$2.76

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.5

Value

$1.64

PnL

+$1.14

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$81.31

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$81.05

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.