Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5)
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold SC Paderborn 07 (60%) · SC Paderborn 07 at 82¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
SC Paderborn 07
10
SC Paderborn 07 60%
$1.5K
-$7.07
76.9¢ → 81.5¢
+6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralSC Paderborn 07 at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | SC Paderborn 07avg 76.8¢ | $904.6 | $771.67 | -$132.92 | 56% 8730-6789 (15519) |
LI LimousinCTR | Eintracht Frankfurtavg 22.8¢ | $251.77 | $386.88 | +$135.11 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
GO GoalLineGhost | SC Paderborn 07avg 78.7¢ | $119.54 | $113.99 | -$5.56 | 50% 28937-28754 (57691) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Eintracht Frankfurtavg 23.9¢ | $66.06 | $96.63 | +$30.57 | 49% 1843-1935 (3778) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | SC Paderborn 07avg 75¢ | $74.19 | $66.34 | -$7.85 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | SC Paderborn 07avg 79¢ | $56.88 | $36.36 | -$20.52 | 48% 62396-67251 (129647) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Eintracht Frankfurtavg 22.9¢ | $8.46 | $18.32 | +$9.86 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | SC Paderborn 07avg 75¢ | $26.88 | $18.1 | -$8.78 | 51% 38228-37447 (75675) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | SC Paderborn 07avg 78¢ | $23.4 | $15.15 | -$8.25 | 54% 10453-8773 (19226) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Eintracht Frankfurtavg 22¢ | $2.15 | $3.42 | +$1.27 | 49% 1800-1900 (3700) |
Invested
$904.6
Value
$771.67
PnL
-$132.92
Record
56%
8730-6789 (15519)
Invested
$251.77
Value
$386.88
PnL
+$135.11
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
Invested
$119.54
Value
$113.99
PnL
-$5.56
Record
50%
28937-28754 (57691)
Invested
$66.06
Value
$96.63
PnL
+$30.57
Record
49%
1843-1935 (3778)
Invested
$74.19
Value
$66.34
PnL
-$7.85
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$56.88
Value
$36.36
PnL
-$20.52
Record
48%
62396-67251 (129647)
Invested
$8.46
Value
$18.32
PnL
+$9.86
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
Invested
$26.88
Value
$18.1
PnL
-$8.78
Record
51%
38228-37447 (75675)
Invested
$23.4
Value
$15.15
PnL
-$8.25
Record
54%
10453-8773 (19226)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$3.42
PnL
+$1.27
Record
49%
1800-1900 (3700)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872
SC Paderborn 07 — $771.67
Limousin
CTREintracht Frankfurt — $386.88
GoalLineGhost
SC Paderborn 07 — $113.99
Venusian
CTREintracht Frankfurt — $96.63
Flaznorp
SC Paderborn 07 — $66.34
38791873984189
SC Paderborn 07 — $36.36
MadridTime
CTREintracht Frankfurt — $18.32
SnakeBall
SC Paderborn 07 — $18.1
Pan9X
SC Paderborn 07 — $15.15
LightParadox
CTREintracht Frankfurt — $3.42