1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 60¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 7

Over40¢Under60¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

-$229.12

Smart Money Entry

61.8¢ → 60¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares10,418

Combined PnL-$189.82

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,394

Combined PnL-$39.3

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KY Kyn008	Underavg 61¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	-$60.97	49% 299-312 (611)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 63.7¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$102.13	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Overavg 40.2¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$43.54	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 62.2¢	$628.04	$606.08	-$21.96	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
SE sentrio	Underavg 61¢	$296.53	$291.77	-$4.76	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 38.4¢	$152.09	$154.46	+$2.38	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 38.4¢	$128.76	$129.62	+$1.86	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Underavg 60¢	$30	$30	+$0	48% 405-446 (851)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$1.95	$1.95	-$0	52% 9018-8169 (17187)

Kyn008

Under

Invested

$3,718.92

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$60.97

Record

49%

299-312 (611)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,767.4

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$102.13

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Over

Invested

$1,470.97

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$43.54

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$628.04

Value

$606.08

PnL

-$21.96

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

sentrio

Under

Invested

$296.53

Value

$291.77

PnL

-$4.76

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$152.09

Value

$154.46

PnL

+$2.38

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$128.76

Value

$129.62

PnL

+$1.86

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Under

Invested

$30

Value

$30

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.