1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 87¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 7

Over14¢Under86¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$196.55

Smart Money Entry

24.1¢ → 86.5¢

+260% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares13,760

Combined PnL+$419.84

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,014

Combined PnL-$223.29

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 25.9¢	$1.4K	$1.9K	+$467.4	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 72.7¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$218.61	56% 8730-6789 (15519)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 21.7¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$132.59	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
VE Venusian	Underavg 28.9¢	$292.2	$328.8	+$36.6	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 73¢	$182.5	$216.25	+$33.75	55% 3804-3137 (6941)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 24¢	$156.27	$211.61	+$55.35	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 77.3¢	$232	$193.5	-$38.5	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 22¢	$127.98	$116.34	-$11.63	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Overavg 78.2¢	$114.42	$101.41	-$11.96	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
└ Over leg	Overavg 78.2¢	$102.49	$78.6	-$23.89
└ Under leg	Underavg 19.2¢	$10.97	$22.81	+$11.93
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Overavg 77.9¢	$61.25	$61.7	+$0.46	64% 2039-1134 (3173)
RN1<$100	Underavg 22¢	$8.18	$12.83	+$4.65	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 78¢	$7.24	$6.96	-$0.38	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 23¢	$2.85	$2.92	+$0.07	50% 1850-1863 (3713)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,416.31

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$467.4

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$1,730.41

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$218.61

Record

56%

8730-6789 (15519)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,388.74

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$132.59

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$292.2

Value

$328.8

PnL

+$36.6

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$182.5

Value

$216.25

PnL

+$33.75

Record

55%

3804-3137 (6941)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$156.27

Value

$211.61

PnL

+$55.35

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$232

Value

$193.5

PnL

-$38.5

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$127.98

Value

$116.34

PnL

-$11.63

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

Pan9XARB<$100

Over

Invested

$114.42

Value

$101.41

PnL

-$11.96

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

Both legs:

Over$102.4978.2¢-$23.89

Under$10.9719.2¢+$11.93

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$61.25

Value

$61.7

PnL

+$0.46

Record

64%

2039-1134 (3173)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$8.18

Value

$12.83

PnL

+$4.65

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.24

Value

$6.96

PnL

-$0.38

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.92

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 87%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.