Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

FC Bayern München leading at halftime?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 0.1¢ · $687 held · ended Nov 7

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$686.65

Combined PnL

-$295.5

Smart Money Entry

39¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$370.17

Total Shares381

Combined PnL+$150.19

No7 traders

Total Value$316.48

Total Shares1,895

Combined PnL-$445.69

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Yesavg 57¢	$149.9	$260.35	+$110.45	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 39.9¢	$81.52	$172.83	+$91.31	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 42.2¢	$68.13	$83.13	+$15	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$48.78	$79	+$30.22	56% 8730-6789 (15519)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 39.5¢	$339.85	$47.62	-$292.23	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
LI Limousin<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$11.8	$20.14	+$8.34	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 52.5¢	$9.5	$10.68	+$1.18	50% 21550-21844 (43394)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 39.7¢	$4.43	$5.74	+$1.31	49% 14983-15895 (30878)
LO lonmi2511CTR	Noavg 37¢	$188.67	$5.1	-$183.57	55% 1426-1175 (2601)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$46.86	$1.27	-$45.6	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$32.7	$0.8	-$31.9	49% 1843-1935 (3778)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$149.9

Value

$260.35

PnL

+$110.45

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$81.52

Value

$172.83

PnL

+$91.31

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$68.13

Value

$83.13

PnL

+$15

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.78

Value

$79

PnL

+$30.22

Record

56%

8730-6789 (15519)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$339.85

Value

$47.62

PnL

-$292.23

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

Limousin<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.8

Value

$20.14

PnL

+$8.34

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.5

Value

$10.68

PnL

+$1.18

Record

50%

21550-21844 (43394)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$4.43

Value

$5.74

PnL

+$1.31

Record

49%

14983-15895 (30878)

lonmi2511CTR

Invested

$188.67

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$183.57

Record

55%

1426-1175 (2601)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$46.86

Value

$1.27

PnL

-$45.6

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$32.7

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$31.9

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.