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6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 7

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

-$68.1

Smart Money Entry

69.5¢ → 100¢

+44% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares5,717

Combined PnL+$1.6K

No3 traders

Total Value$2.71

Total Shares5,428

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 69.3¢	$2.7K	$3.9K	+$1.2K	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
0xheavy888	Yesavg 70¢	$414.86	$592.35	+$177.5	56% 8223-6528 (14751)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Yesavg 70¢	$310.92	$443.94	+$133.03	56% 8730-6789 (15519)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 68¢	$408.15	$327.59	+$9.88	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 68.7¢	$134.63	$192.17	+$57.54	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
PA Pan9X	Yesavg 79.1¢	$105.85	$124.94	+$22.59	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 31¢	$1.2K	$1.88	$-1.2K	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 30¢	$269.56	$0.45	-$269.11	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 29.5¢	$224	$0.38	-$223.62	49% 1843-1935 (3778)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$2,698.84

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$414.86

Value

$592.35

PnL

+$177.5

Record

56%

8223-6528 (14751)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Yes

Invested

$310.92

Value

$443.94

PnL

+$133.03

Record

56%

8730-6789 (15519)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$408.15

Value

$327.59

PnL

+$9.88

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$134.63

Value

$192.17

PnL

+$57.54

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

Pan9X

Yes

Invested

$105.85

Value

$124.94

PnL

+$22.59

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$1,168.64

Value

$1.88

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$269.56

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$269.11

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$224

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$223.62

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.