1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 60¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 8

Over41¢Under59¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$13.0K

Combined PnL

$132.46

Smart Money Entry

61¢ → 59.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over41%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares19,023

Combined PnL+$95.29

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,098

Combined PnL+$37.17

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 61¢	$9.8K	$9.9K	+$80.73	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 61¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$12.13	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 39¢	$161.01	$1.1K	+$40.85	48% 405-446 (851)
0xheavy888	Underavg 60¢	$240	$242	+$2	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 46.8¢	$142.36	$138.39	-$3.96	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 60¢	$24.82	$25.3	+$0.48	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$18.4	$18.63	+$0.23	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$10.25	$10.14	-$0.11	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 60¢	$6.6	$6.55	-$0.05	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$2.1	$2.27	+$0.17	52% 9022-8174 (17196)

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$9,849.49

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$80.73

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,479.64

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$12.13

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$161.01

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$40.85

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$240

Value

$242

PnL

+$2

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$142.36

Value

$138.39

PnL

-$3.96

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$24.82

Value

$25.3

PnL

+$0.48

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.4

Value

$18.63

PnL

+$0.23

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.25

Value

$10.14

PnL

-$0.11

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$6.6

Value

$6.55

PnL

-$0.05

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.27

PnL

+$0.17

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.