Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (70%). 5 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 2.5

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 31¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7

Over31¢Under69¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$461.83

Smart Money Entry

67¢ → 30.5¢

-54% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over31%

Under70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,733

Combined PnL+$985.87

Over5 traders

Total Value$460.95

Total Shares1,466

Combined PnL-$524.04

Under — 62%Over — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Underavg 32.9¢	$353.9	$747.14	+$393.24	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
VE Venusian	Underavg 36¢	$283.25	$546.83	+$263.58	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 66.5¢	$813.56	$373.42	-$440.14	56% 8730-6789 (15519)
KY Kyn008	Underavg 29¢	$90.73	$217.44	+$126.71	49% 299-312 (611)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 29.8¢	$80.83	$188.28	+$107.45	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 33¢	$49.5	$104.25	+$54.75	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 70.4¢	$90.02	$93.78	+$3.77	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
└ Over leg	Overavg 70.4¢	$51.36	$47.8	-$3.56
└ Under leg	Underavg 29¢	$38.66	$45.99	+$7.33
RN1<$100	Underavg 32¢	$23.3	$50.61	+$27.31	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 69.5¢	$70.19	$35.86	-$32.53	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 70¢	$70	$30.5	-$39.5	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 29¢	$17.25	$29.14	+$11.89	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 69¢	$29.54	$18.62	-$10.92	55% 3804-3137 (6941)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Overavg 70¢	$3.5	$2.55	-$0.95	53% 2699-2381 (5080)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 30¢	$1.5	$2.45	+$0.95	52% 9018-8169 (17187)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$353.9

Value

$747.14

PnL

+$393.24

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$283.25

Value

$546.83

PnL

+$263.58

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$813.56

Value

$373.42

PnL

-$440.14

Record

56%

8730-6789 (15519)

Kyn008

Under

Invested

$90.73

Value

$217.44

PnL

+$126.71

Record

49%

299-312 (611)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$80.83

Value

$188.28

PnL

+$107.45

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$49.5

Value

$104.25

PnL

+$54.75

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$90.02

Value

$93.78

PnL

+$3.77

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

Both legs:

Over$51.3670.4¢-$3.56

Under$38.6629¢+$7.33

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$23.3

Value

$50.61

PnL

+$27.31

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$70.19

Value

$35.86

PnL

-$32.53

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$70

Value

$30.5

PnL

-$39.5

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$17.25

Value

$29.14

PnL

+$11.89

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.54

Value

$18.62

PnL

-$10.92

Record

55%

3804-3137 (6941)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.5

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0.95

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$1.5

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.95

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 31%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.