Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (69%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV 07 Elversberg: Both Teams to Score

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 31¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7

Yes31¢No69¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$34.41

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 31¢

-47% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,718

Combined PnL+$396.33

Yes5 traders

Total Value$497.54

Total Shares1,563

Combined PnL-$430.74

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Noavg 41¢	$502.25	$845.25	+$343	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 41.1¢	$269.45	$319.52	+$50.06	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Yesavg 59¢	$590	$310	-$280	56% 8730-6789 (15519)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 58.9¢	$250.07	$136.41	-$113.66	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 42¢	$44.05	$44.59	+$0.54	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Yesavg 58.9¢	$77.25	$40.69	-$36.56	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
RN1<$100	Noavg 46¢	$5.45	$8.18	+$2.73	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$7.98	$7.48	-$0.49	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 60.2¢	$3.13	$2.97	-$0.03	50% 21550-21844 (43394)

Limousin

Invested

$502.25

Value

$845.25

PnL

+$343

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

Flaznorp

Invested

$269.45

Value

$319.52

PnL

+$50.06

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Yes

Invested

$590

Value

$310

PnL

-$280

Record

56%

8730-6789 (15519)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$250.07

Value

$136.41

PnL

-$113.66

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$44.05

Value

$44.59

PnL

+$0.54

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.25

Value

$40.69

PnL

-$36.56

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

RN1<$100

Invested

$5.45

Value

$8.18

PnL

+$2.73

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.98

Value

$7.48

PnL

-$0.49

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.13

Value

$2.97

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

21550-21844 (43394)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.1%

31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$202.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

302.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.