Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET

16 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Down (57%) · Down at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 8

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 57%

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

-$86.66

Smart Money Entry

63.4¢ → 100¢

+58% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 28 top traders (57%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares6,262

Combined PnL+$985.21

Up12 traders

Total Value$261.81

Total Shares4,567

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Down — 57%Up — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
machinelearned	Downavg 43.2¢	$635.6	$934.78	+$299.18	55% 9938-8254 (18192)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 73.8¢	$732.63	$779.45	+$46.83	51% 12360-11859 (24219)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 69.9¢	$773.33	$706.1	-$67.23	50% 6436-6457 (12893)
Atomforge	Downavg 53.1¢	$370.81	$657.36	+$286.56	64% 5030-2825 (7855)
BY ByteBadger93	Downavg 78.2¢	$580.95	$556.36	-$24.59	55% 1746-1424 (3170)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 60.6¢	$455.03	$499.39	+$44.36	54% 16644-14090 (30734)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 65.7¢	$402.44	$445.1	+$42.67	48% 6887-7490 (14377)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 55.7¢	$306.74	$383.77	+$77.02	55% 15067-12471 (27538)
Bossgirl	Downavg 77.6¢	$255.41	$328.81	+$73.41	54% 4793-4035 (8828)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 87.5¢	$250.6	$269.1	+$18.5	75% 295-99 (394)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 54.2¢	$203.71	$264.63	+$60.92	54% 13761-11752 (25513)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Downavg 75.8¢	$158.08	$155.22	-$2.86	52% 2180-1978 (4158)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR	Upavg 50.1¢	$142.65	$143.93	+$1.27	59% 6954-4900 (11854)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR	Upavg 31.8¢	$104.88	$115.84	+$10.95	52% 21295-19590 (40885)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 49.2¢	$45.68	$90.7	+$45.14	65% 130645-70397 (201042)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 69.9¢	$62.95	$89.96	+$27	56% 60779-47271 (108050)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 65¢	$32.5	$49.98	+$17.48	55% 52460-42905 (95365)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 27.7¢	$21.06	$47.89	+$40.84	61% 98877-62775 (161652)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 23¢	$576.04	$1.25	-$574.79	56% 77627-59916 (137543)
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 40.2¢	$148.41	$0.18	-$148.22	66% 101181-52990 (154171)
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 39.9¢	$124.07	$0.16	-$123.91	55% 51803-42237 (94040)
AL almachCTR	Upavg 39.5¢	$117.04	$0.15	-$116.89	55% 50273-41876 (92149)
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Upavg 5.2¢	$14.22	$0.14	-$14.08	75% 9961-3335 (13296)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100	Upavg 44.9¢	$59.04	$0.07	-$58.98	52% 10639-9975 (20614)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 7.5¢	$7.65	$0.05	-$7.6	59% 63961-45114 (109075)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$635.6

Value

$934.78

PnL

+$299.18

Record

55%

9938-8254 (18192)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$732.63

Value

$779.45

PnL

+$46.83

Record

51%

12360-11859 (24219)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$773.33

Value

$706.1

PnL

-$67.23

Record

50%

6436-6457 (12893)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$370.81

Value

$657.36

PnL

+$286.56

Record

64%

5030-2825 (7855)

ByteBadger93

Down

Invested

$580.95

Value

$556.36

PnL

-$24.59

Record

55%

1746-1424 (3170)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$455.03

Value

$499.39

PnL

+$44.36

Record

54%

16644-14090 (30734)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$402.44

Value

$445.1

PnL

+$42.67

Record

48%

6887-7490 (14377)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$306.74

Value

$383.77

PnL

+$77.02

Record

55%

15067-12471 (27538)

Bossgirl

Down

Invested

$255.41

Value

$328.81

PnL

+$73.41

Record

54%

4793-4035 (8828)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$250.6

Value

$269.1

PnL

+$18.5

Record

75%

295-99 (394)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$203.71

Value

$264.63

PnL

+$60.92

Record

54%

13761-11752 (25513)

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down

Invested

$158.08

Value

$155.22

PnL

-$2.86

Record

52%

2180-1978 (4158)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR

Invested

$142.65

Value

$143.93

PnL

+$1.27

Record

59%

6954-4900 (11854)

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR

Invested

$104.88

Value

$115.84

PnL

+$10.95

Record

52%

21295-19590 (40885)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$45.68

Value

$90.7

PnL

+$45.14

Record

65%

130645-70397 (201042)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$62.95

Value

$89.96

PnL

+$27

Record

56%

60779-47271 (108050)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$32.5

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$17.48

Record

55%

52460-42905 (95365)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$21.06

Value

$47.89

PnL

+$40.84

Record

61%

98877-62775 (161652)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$576.04

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$574.79

Record

56%

77627-59916 (137543)

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$148.41

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$148.22

Record

66%

101181-52990 (154171)

bosonaCTR

Invested

$124.07

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$123.91

Record

55%

51803-42237 (94040)

almachCTR

Invested

$117.04

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$116.89

Record

55%

50273-41876 (92149)

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Invested

$14.22

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$14.08

Record

75%

9961-3335 (13296)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100

Invested

$59.04

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$58.98

Record

52%

10639-9975 (20614)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$7.65

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$7.6

Record

59%

63961-45114 (109075)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 28 top traders (57%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.