Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET

16 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Up (84%) · Up at 61¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 7

Up61¢Down39¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 84%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$96.86

Smart Money Entry

59.5¢ → 60.5¢

+2% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 19 top traders (84%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up61%

Down40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,479

Combined PnL+$94.31

Down3 traders

Total Value$33.7

Total Shares85

Combined PnL+$2.54

Up — 84%Down — 16%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 55.5¢	$644.89	$633.8	-$11.09	58% 39817-28803 (68620)
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 61.4¢	$386.71	$401.32	+$14.6	59% 11313-7772 (19085)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.4¢	$242.42	$238.8	-$3.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.1¢	$144.29	$162.52	+$18.23
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 65¢	$382.17	$374.64	-$7.53	66% 101052-52927 (153979)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65¢	$278.42	$289.3	+$10.88
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.5¢	$103.75	$85.34	-$18.41
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 65¢	$342.73	$335.62	-$7.11	54% 16593-14022 (30615)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65¢	$209.93	$224.57	+$14.63
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.5¢	$132.79	$111.05	-$21.74
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 57.6¢	$284.01	$297	+$12.99	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.6¢	$144	$173.75	+$29.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.6¢	$140.01	$123.25	-$16.76
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 71.5¢	$307.4	$288.01	-$19.39	48% 6636-7306 (13942)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.5¢	$209.97	$177.6	-$32.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.9¢	$97.43	$110.41	+$12.98
machinelearned	Upavg 57.5¢	$219.17	$242.47	+$23.3	55% 9869-8182 (18051)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 64.5¢	$214.43	$239.05	+$24.62	56% 15966-12593 (28559)
pspspsps5	Upavg 59.1¢	$150.21	$211.85	+$61.64	45% 40159-48112 (88271)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 61.3¢	$186.49	$192.83	+$6.34	55% 14980-12426 (27406)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.3¢	$133.32	$151.2	+$17.88
└ Down leg	Downavg 39¢	$53.17	$41.63	-$11.54
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 59.7¢	$146	$141.82	-$4.18	52% 21126-19285 (40411)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.7¢	$83.15	$93.96	+$10.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.7¢	$62.85	$47.86	-$14.98
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 57.3¢	$121.83	$136.4	+$14.57	51% 12146-11645 (23791)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.3¢	$91.83	$96.9	+$5.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 30¢	$30	$39.5	+$9.5
FairValueMachine<$100	Upavg 59.1¢	$66.39	$84.96	+$18.57	54% 13699-11695 (25394)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 74.9¢	$90.79	$78.1	-$12.69	57% 9942-7436 (17378)
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Upavg 78.2¢	$89.3	$66.23	+$12.78	65% 130363-70208 (200571)
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.2¢	$39.12	$33.75	-$5.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 23.8¢	$23.77	$32.48	+$18.15
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 41.6¢	$57.65	$57.24	-$0.41	54% 10149-8512 (18661)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.7¢	$27.71	$29.52	+$1.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.6¢	$29.94	$27.72	-$2.22
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 76¢	$42.96	$38.76	-$4.2	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 78.6¢	$42.26	$33.75	-$8.51	63% 42476-25219 (67695)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100	Upavg 74¢	$33.03	$32.93	-$0.1	52% 10457-9465 (19922)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 60.6¢	$29.42	$29.37	-$0.05	49% 81037-84480 (165517)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Upavg 64.8¢	$27.44	$28.32	+$0.87	52% 10576-9909 (20485)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 33.6¢	$25.12	$27.65	+$2.53	65% 114635-61671 (176306)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 80.2¢	$20.04	$18.75	-$1.29	58% 63359-46555 (109914)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 78.2¢	$10.93	$10.84	+$1.81	61% 98665-62649 (161314)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 66.9¢	$7.86	$9.22	+$1.36	55% 51661-42835 (94496)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$644.89

Value

$633.8

PnL

-$11.09

Record

58%

39817-28803 (68620)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$386.71

Value

$401.32

PnL

+$14.6

Record

59%

11313-7772 (19085)

Both legs:

Up$242.4261.4¢-$3.62

Down$144.2935.1¢+$18.23

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$382.17

Value

$374.64

PnL

-$7.53

Record

66%

101052-52927 (153979)

Both legs:

Up$278.4265¢+$10.88

Down$103.7539.5¢-$18.41

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$342.73

Value

$335.62

PnL

-$7.11

Record

54%

16593-14022 (30615)

Both legs:

Up$209.9365¢+$14.63

Down$132.7936.5¢-$21.74

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$284.01

Value

$297

PnL

+$12.99

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

Both legs:

Up$14457.6¢+$29.75

Down$140.0134.6¢-$16.76

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$307.4

Value

$288.01

PnL

-$19.39

Record

48%

6636-7306 (13942)

Both legs:

Up$209.9771.5¢-$32.37

Down$97.4334.9¢+$12.98

machinelearned

Invested

$219.17

Value

$242.47

PnL

+$23.3

Record

55%

9869-8182 (18051)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$214.43

Value

$239.05

PnL

+$24.62

Record

56%

15966-12593 (28559)

pspspsps5

Invested

$150.21

Value

$211.85

PnL

+$61.64

Record

45%

40159-48112 (88271)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$186.49

Value

$192.83

PnL

+$6.34

Record

55%

14980-12426 (27406)

Both legs:

Up$133.3261.3¢+$17.88

Down$53.1739¢-$11.54

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$146

Value

$141.82

PnL

-$4.18

Record

52%

21126-19285 (40411)

Both legs:

Up$83.1559.7¢+$10.8

Down$62.8542.7¢-$14.98

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$121.83

Value

$136.4

PnL

+$14.57

Record

51%

12146-11645 (23791)

Both legs:

Up$91.8357.3¢+$5.07

Down$3030¢+$9.5

FairValueMachine<$100

Invested

$66.39

Value

$84.96

PnL

+$18.57

Record

54%

13699-11695 (25394)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$90.79

Value

$78.1

PnL

-$12.69

Record

57%

9942-7436 (17378)

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Invested

$89.3

Value

$66.23

PnL

+$12.78

Record

65%

130363-70208 (200571)

Both legs:

Up$39.1278.2¢-$5.37

Down$23.7723.8¢+$18.15

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$57.65

Value

$57.24

PnL

-$0.41

Record

54%

10149-8512 (18661)

Both legs:

Up$27.7157.7¢+$1.81

Down$29.9441.6¢-$2.22

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$42.96

Value

$38.76

PnL

-$4.2

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$42.26

Value

$33.75

PnL

-$8.51

Record

63%

42476-25219 (67695)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100

Invested

$33.03

Value

$32.93

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

10457-9465 (19922)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$29.42

Value

$29.37

PnL

-$0.05

Record

49%

81037-84480 (165517)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Invested

$27.44

Value

$28.32

PnL

+$0.87

Record

52%

10576-9909 (20485)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$25.12

Value

$27.65

PnL

+$2.53

Record

65%

114635-61671 (176306)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$20.04

Value

$18.75

PnL

-$1.29

Record

58%

63359-46555 (109914)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$10.93

Value

$10.84

PnL

+$1.81

Record

61%

98665-62649 (161314)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$7.86

Value

$9.22

PnL

+$1.36

Record

55%

51661-42835 (94496)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 19 top traders (84%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.