Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET

Resolved Up. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.3K

Combined PnL

$343.52

Smart Money Signal

25 of 37 top traders (68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up25 traders

Total Value$11.9K

Total Shares11,903

Combined PnL+$529.46

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,090

Combined PnL-$185.94

Up — 68%Down — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99.1¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$30.73	56% 29664-23206 (52870)
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30	74% 104319-36841 (141160)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 72.7¢	$788.82	$831.38	+$42.56	54% 16267-13646 (29913)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 87.2¢	$745.96	$681.25	-$64.71	66% 100505-52530 (153035)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 78.5¢	$527.05	$579.43	+$52.38	56% 15496-12177 (27673)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 79.5¢	$306.21	$304.25	-$1.95	67% 101382-49705 (151087)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 79.3¢	$262.34	$308.16	+$45.83	52% 20812-18896 (39708)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 79.3¢	$309.21	$281.1	-$28.1	48% 5542-5979 (11521)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 72.7¢	$243.7	$262.73	+$19.04	51% 11049-10545 (21594)
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 62.2¢	$182.66	$244	+$61.34	59% 10707-7370 (18077)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 53.5¢	$252.44	$299.87	+$47.43	56% 7911-6145 (14056)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.5¢	$160.42	$299.87	+$139.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 53¢	$92.02	—	-$92.02
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 79.8¢	$343.71	$235.98	-$107.73	55% 14497-11865 (26362)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 85¢	$246.97	$224.78	-$22.18	63% 60039-34531 (94570)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.1¢	$214.74	$218.99	+$4.25	91% 26742-2516 (29258)
PB PBot-6	Upavg 45¢	$180	$400	+$220	58% 51753-37796 (89549)
PB PBot-5	Upavg 52¢	$197.92	$380.74	+$182.82	52% 11801-10818 (22619)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 68¢	$155.1	$193.3	+$38.19	50% 6036-6024 (12060)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 91.9¢	$113.9	$124	+$10.1	55% 50608-42054 (92662)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 19.8¢	$211.12	$100	-$111.12	55% 9414-7791 (17205)
└ Up leg	Upavg 93¢	$93	$100	+$7
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.8¢	$118.12	—	-$118.12
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Upavg 68.2¢	$86.17	$103.5	+$17.33	51% 9337-8812 (18149)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$88.51	—	-$88.51	58% 39485-28519 (68004)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 94.4¢	$81.77	$84.75	+$2.98	61% 97725-61833 (159558)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Upavg 83.8¢	$64.93	$60.01	-$4.93	57% 12337-9329 (21666)
FairValueMachine<$100	Upavg 70.6¢	$43.63	$34.99	-$8.64	55% 13193-10785 (23978)
PA Papeasy<$100	Upavg 71¢	$24.08	$28.64	+$4.56	49% 3690-3811 (7501)

THG.

Invested

$3,231.27

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$30.73

Record

56%

29664-23206 (52870)

BoneOhio

Invested

$2,970

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30

Record

74%

104319-36841 (141160)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$788.82

Value

$831.38

PnL

+$42.56

Record

54%

16267-13646 (29913)

Bonereaper

Invested

$745.96

Value

$681.25

PnL

-$64.71

Record

66%

100505-52530 (153035)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$527.05

Value

$579.43

PnL

+$52.38

Record

56%

15496-12177 (27673)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$306.21

Value

$304.25

PnL

-$1.95

Record

67%

101382-49705 (151087)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$262.34

Value

$308.16

PnL

+$45.83

Record

52%

20812-18896 (39708)

asdcaxz

Invested

$309.21

Value

$281.1

PnL

-$28.1

Record

48%

5542-5979 (11521)

blue.birds

Invested

$243.7

Value

$262.73

PnL

+$19.04

Record

51%

11049-10545 (21594)

1000monkeys

Invested

$182.66

Value

$244

PnL

+$61.34

Record

59%

10707-7370 (18077)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$252.44

Value

$299.87

PnL

+$47.43

Record

56%

7911-6145 (14056)

Both legs:

Up$160.4253.5¢+$139.45

Down$92.0253¢-$92.02

GoodFallen

Invested

$343.71

Value

$235.98

PnL

-$107.73

Record

55%

14497-11865 (26362)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$246.97

Value

$224.78

PnL

-$22.18

Record

63%

60039-34531 (94570)

hoodquant

Invested

$214.74

Value

$218.99

PnL

+$4.25

Record

91%

26742-2516 (29258)

PBot-6

Invested

$180

Value

$400

PnL

+$220

Record

58%

51753-37796 (89549)

PBot-5

Invested

$197.92

Value

$380.74

PnL

+$182.82

Record

52%

11801-10818 (22619)

ply-pm0

Invested

$155.1

Value

$193.3

PnL

+$38.19

Record

50%

6036-6024 (12060)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$113.9

Value

$124

PnL

+$10.1

Record

55%

50608-42054 (92662)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$211.12

Value

$100

PnL

-$111.12

Record

55%

9414-7791 (17205)

Both legs:

Up$9393¢+$7

Down$118.1219.8¢-$118.12

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Invested

$86.17

Value

$103.5

PnL

+$17.33

Record

51%

9337-8812 (18149)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$88.51

Value

—

PnL

-$88.51

Record

58%

39485-28519 (68004)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$81.77

Value

$84.75

PnL

+$2.98

Record

61%

97725-61833 (159558)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Invested

$64.93

Value

$60.01

PnL

-$4.93

Record

57%

12337-9329 (21666)

FairValueMachine<$100

Invested

$43.63

Value

$34.99

PnL

-$8.64

Record

55%

13193-10785 (23978)

Papeasy<$100

Invested

$24.08

Value

$28.64

PnL

+$4.56

Record

49%

3690-3811 (7501)

Smart Money Signal

25 of 37 top traders (68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xff8163c6...5c4acb

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793801700

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $3.3K

+$30.73

BoneOhio

Up — $3.0K

+$30

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $831.38

+$42.56

Bonereaper

Up — $681.25

-$64.71

CrouchPredictions

Up — $579.43

+$52.38

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $304.25

-$1.95

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Up — $308.16

+$45.83

asdcaxz

Up — $281.1

-$28.1

blue.birds

Up — $262.73

+$19.04

1000monkeys

Up — $244

+$61.34

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