Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET

Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 59%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

$-2.9K

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 46 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down26 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares7,901

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Up20 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,510

Combined PnL$-4.0K

Down — 57%Up — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 45.7¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$124.25	56% 15080-11827 (26907)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$11.74	93% 24846-1833 (26679)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 48.5¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K	55% 15920-13251 (29171)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 77¢	$808.5	$1.1K	+$241.5	57% 72525-55184 (127709)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Downavg 40.5¢	$501.96	$732.28	+$230.32	52% 13105-11909 (25014)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 50.1¢	$583.52	$617.02	+$33.5	60% 7809-5260 (13069)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Upavg 56.5¢	$562.92	—	-$562.92	51% 10151-9738 (19889)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 65.2¢	$529.51	$472.65	-$56.85	50% 5723-5757 (11480)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 73.8¢	$352.79	$407.51	+$54.72	53% 7590-6789 (14379)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 47.1¢	$477.72	—	-$477.72	56% 14148-11247 (25395)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR	Upavg 51.7¢	$573.41	—	-$573.41	53% 17520-15782 (33302)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 60.3¢	$363.72	$309.1	-$54.62	55% 8755-7279 (16034)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.9¢	$177.2	—	-$177.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.3¢	$186.52	$309.1	+$122.59
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877CTR	Upavg 35.7¢	$277.61	—	-$277.61	52% 7535-6890 (14425)
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359ARB<$100	Upavg 36.9¢	$243.19	$252.73	+$9.54	52% 9128-8586 (17714)
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.9¢	$132.7	—	-$132.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.7¢	$110.49	$252.73	+$142.24
GA gansinimen	Downavg 72.7¢	$355.7	$300	-$55.7	51% 17234-16742 (33976)
machinelearned	Downavg 34¢	$148.55	$286.82	+$138.27	55% 9103-7518 (16621)
FairValueMachineCTR	Upavg 48.2¢	$369.82	—	-$369.82	56% 12859-9901 (22760)
AS asdcaxzCTR	Upavg 49.4¢	$393.83	—	-$393.83	48% 4666-5092 (9758)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 66.3¢	$267.56	$258.73	-$8.84	55% 7928-6475 (14403)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 60.1¢	$297.11	$247.87	-$49.24	26% 8862-25304 (34166)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Downavg 74.5¢	$136.61	$170.52	+$33.92	65% 15126-8138 (23264)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 28.2¢	$91	—	-$91	55% 18905-15481 (34386)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 58.3¢	$141.82	$147.61	+$5.8	60% 12708-8468 (21176)
LI Little-big	Downavg 56.8¢	$155.77	$274.26	+$118.49	35% 19292-36348 (55640)
ST std0CTR	Upavg 59.6¢	$125.24	—	-$125.24	67% 53342-26739 (80081)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,232.48

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$124.25

Record

56%

15080-11827 (26907)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,063.46

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$11.74

Record

93%

24846-1833 (26679)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$1,232.45

Value

—

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

55%

15920-13251 (29171)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$808.5

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$241.5

Record

57%

72525-55184 (127709)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Down

Invested

$501.96

Value

$732.28

PnL

+$230.32

Record

52%

13105-11909 (25014)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$583.52

Value

$617.02

PnL

+$33.5

Record

60%

7809-5260 (13069)

blue.birdsCTR

Invested

$562.92

Value

—

PnL

-$562.92

Record

51%

10151-9738 (19889)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$529.51

Value

$472.65

PnL

-$56.85

Record

50%

5723-5757 (11480)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$352.79

Value

$407.51

PnL

+$54.72

Record

53%

7590-6789 (14379)

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$477.72

Value

—

PnL

-$477.72

Record

56%

14148-11247 (25395)

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR

Invested

$573.41

Value

—

PnL

-$573.41

Record

53%

17520-15782 (33302)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$363.72

Value

$309.1

PnL

-$54.62

Record

55%

8755-7279 (16034)

Both legs:

Up$177.241.9¢-$177.2

Down$186.5260.3¢+$122.59

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877CTR

Invested

$277.61

Value

—

PnL

-$277.61

Record

52%

7535-6890 (14425)

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359ARB<$100

Invested

$243.19

Value

$252.73

PnL

+$9.54

Record

52%

9128-8586 (17714)

Both legs:

Up$132.736.9¢-$132.7

Down$110.4943.7¢+$142.24

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$355.7

Value

$300

PnL

-$55.7

Record

51%

17234-16742 (33976)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$148.55

Value

$286.82

PnL

+$138.27

Record

55%

9103-7518 (16621)

FairValueMachineCTR

Invested

$369.82

Value

—

PnL

-$369.82

Record

56%

12859-9901 (22760)

asdcaxzCTR

Invested

$393.83

Value

—

PnL

-$393.83

Record

48%

4666-5092 (9758)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$267.56

Value

$258.73

PnL

-$8.84

Record

55%

7928-6475 (14403)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$297.11

Value

$247.87

PnL

-$49.24

Record

26%

8862-25304 (34166)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down

Invested

$136.61

Value

$170.52

PnL

+$33.92

Record

65%

15126-8138 (23264)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$91

Value

—

PnL

-$91

Record

55%

18905-15481 (34386)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$141.82

Value

$147.61

PnL

+$5.8

Record

60%

12708-8468 (21176)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$155.77

Value

$274.26

PnL

+$118.49

Record

35%

19292-36348 (55640)

std0CTR

Invested

$125.24

Value

—

PnL

-$125.24

Record

67%

53342-26739 (80081)

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 46 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x4e42db0d...e24c63

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793628000

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.4K

+$124.25

hoodquant

Down — $1.1K

+$11.74

dangerously-skip-permissions

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.2K

uninformedfloww

Down — $1.1K

+$241.5

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Down — $732.28

+$230.32

1000monkeys

Down — $617.02

+$33.5

blue.birds

CTR

Up — $0

-$562.92

ply-pm0

Down — $472.65

-$56.85

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down — $407.51

GoodFallen

Up — $0