Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET

Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 72%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

-$467.09

Smart Money Signal

32 of 46 top traders (70%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up32 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares5,111

Combined PnL+$91.58

Down14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,324

Combined PnL-$558.67

Up — 70%Down — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 68.3¢	$824.34	$801.43	-$22.91	56% 15034-11798 (26832)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 67.1¢	$603.47	$561.27	-$42.2	55% 15877-13227 (29104)
ST stepahead	Upavg 66.7¢	$525.92	$543.74	+$17.81	55% 6956-5737 (12693)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 79.3¢	$516.19	$483.18	-$33.02	51% 4742-4529 (9271)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 68.4¢	$462.41	$456	-$6.41	54% 8413-7124 (15537)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.4¢	$312.06	$456	+$143.94
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.1¢	$150.35	—	-$150.35
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 76¢	$395.25	$429.67	+$34.42	47% 1919-2173 (4092)
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 71.3¢	$292.89	$290.73	-$2.16	60% 7769-5075 (12844)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 75.9¢	$251.14	$229.91	-$21.23	50% 5689-5742 (11431)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 91.5¢	$193.58	$202.08	+$8.5	56% 58877-45483 (104360)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 71.2¢	$232.05	$189.82	-$42.23	56% 14120-11224 (25344)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Downavg 31¢	$227.87	$139.63	-$88.24	53% 17488-15750 (33238)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.3¢	$93.99	$139.63	+$45.64
└ Down leg	Downavg 31¢	$133.88	—	-$133.88
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 93¢	$166.38	$178.9	+$12.52	26% 8828-25270 (34098)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 65¢	$130.41	$178.16	+$47.75	53% 7555-6774 (14329)
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 30.7¢	$133.74	—	-$133.74	55% 9075-7493 (16568)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 93.8¢	$132.19	$115.54	-$13.1	55% 7898-6455 (14353)
AL Alpharo28	Upavg 52.7¢	$107.13	$106.78	+$11.5	50% 37301-36743 (74044)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 56.6¢	$80.85	$87.32	+$6.47	56% 12831-9879 (22710)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.6¢	$49.45	$87.32	+$37.87
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.4¢	$31.4	—	-$31.4
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Upavg 76.4¢	$84.68	$104.17	+$19.49	52% 7466-6907 (14373)
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Upavg 71.3¢	$79.2	$60.6	-$18.6	65% 126885-67784 (194669)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.3¢	$43.2	$60.6	+$17.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 29¢	$36	—	-$36
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 94¢	$70.5	$75	+$4.5	74% 103405-36611 (140016)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$71.28	$72	+$0.72	93% 24752-1828 (26580)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Downavg 30¢	$84.63	$54.46	-$30.17	65% 15090-8108 (23198)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.5¢	$38.95	$54.46	+$15.51
└ Down leg	Downavg 30¢	$45.68	—	-$45.68
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 84.4¢	$55.35	$65.61	+$10.26	66% 127607-65637 (193244)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Downavg 45¢	$56.85	—	-$56.85	48% 23581-25865 (49446)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 77¢	$63.36	$74.75	+$11.39	64% 25745-14302 (40047)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$824.34

Value

$801.43

PnL

-$22.91

Record

56%

15034-11798 (26832)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$603.47

Value

$561.27

PnL

-$42.2

Record

55%

15877-13227 (29104)

stepahead

Invested

$525.92

Value

$543.74

PnL

+$17.81

Record

55%

6956-5737 (12693)

blue.birds

Invested

$516.19

Value

$483.18

PnL

-$33.02

Record

51%

4742-4529 (9271)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$462.41

Value

$456

PnL

-$6.41

Record

54%

8413-7124 (15537)

Both legs:

Up$312.0668.4¢+$143.94

Down$150.3532.1¢-$150.35

asdcaxz

Invested

$395.25

Value

$429.67

PnL

+$34.42

Record

47%

1919-2173 (4092)

1000monkeys

Invested

$292.89

Value

$290.73

PnL

-$2.16

Record

60%

7769-5075 (12844)

ply-pm0

Invested

$251.14

Value

$229.91

PnL

-$21.23

Record

50%

5689-5742 (11431)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$193.58

Value

$202.08

PnL

+$8.5

Record

56%

58877-45483 (104360)

GoodFallen

Invested

$232.05

Value

$189.82

PnL

-$42.23

Record

56%

14120-11224 (25344)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Down

Invested

$227.87

Value

$139.63

PnL

-$88.24

Record

53%

17488-15750 (33238)

Both legs:

Up$93.9967.3¢+$45.64

Down$133.8831¢-$133.88

Hcrystallash

Invested

$166.38

Value

$178.9

PnL

+$12.52

Record

26%

8828-25270 (34098)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$130.41

Value

$178.16

PnL

+$47.75

Record

53%

7555-6774 (14329)

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$133.74

Value

—

PnL

-$133.74

Record

55%

9075-7493 (16568)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$132.19

Value

$115.54

PnL

-$13.1

Record

55%

7898-6455 (14353)

Alpharo28

Invested

$107.13

Value

$106.78

PnL

+$11.5

Record

50%

37301-36743 (74044)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$80.85

Value

$87.32

PnL

+$6.47

Record

56%

12831-9879 (22710)

Both legs:

Up$49.4556.6¢+$37.87

Down$31.424.4¢-$31.4

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Invested

$84.68

Value

$104.17

PnL

+$19.49

Record

52%

7466-6907 (14373)

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Invested

$79.2

Value

$60.6

PnL

-$18.6

Record

65%

126885-67784 (194669)

Both legs:

Up$43.271.3¢+$17.4

Down$3629¢-$36

BoneOhio<$100

Invested

$70.5

Value

$75

PnL

+$4.5

Record

74%

103405-36611 (140016)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$71.28

Value

$72

PnL

+$0.72

Record

93%

24752-1828 (26580)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$84.63

Value

$54.46

PnL

-$30.17

Record

65%

15090-8108 (23198)

Both legs:

Up$38.9571.5¢+$15.51

Down$45.6830¢-$45.68

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$55.35

Value

$65.61

PnL

+$10.26

Record

66%

127607-65637 (193244)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$56.85

Value

—

PnL

-$56.85

Record

48%

23581-25865 (49446)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$63.36

Value

$74.75

PnL

+$11.39

Record

64%

25745-14302 (40047)

Smart Money Signal

32 of 46 top traders (70%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x64b33f18...d669d8

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793615400

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Up — $801.43

-$22.91

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $561.27

-$42.2

stepahead

Up — $543.74

+$17.81

blue.birds

Up — $483.18

-$33.02

sfkjbsr457

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$6.41

asdcaxz

Up — $429.67

+$34.42

1000monkeys

Up — $290.73

-$2.16

ply-pm0

Up — $229.91

-$21.23

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $202.08

+$8.5

GoodFallen

Up — $189.82

-$42.23

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