Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 70%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.1K

Combined PnL

-$167.87

Smart Money Signal

Down

32 of 47 top traders (68%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down32 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares8,391

Combined PnL+$395.92

Up15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,374

Combined PnL-$563.79

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Downavg 56¢	$4.5K	$8.0K	+$8.52	56% 3713-2864 (6577)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56¢	$4.5K	$8.0K	+$3.5K
└ Up leg	Up	—	—	$-3.5K
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 83.3¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$87.35	56% 15034-11798 (26832)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 85.1¢	$678.27	$665.77	-$12.5	51% 4742-4529 (9271)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 90.1¢	$691.34	$642.87	-$48.47	50% 5689-5742 (11431)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 78¢	$586.44	$599.85	+$13.42	60% 7769-5075 (12844)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 72.6¢	$545.73	$555.33	+$9.6	55% 15877-13227 (29104)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 85.7¢	$612.03	$619.52	+$7.49	47% 1919-2173 (4092)
└ Down leg	Downavg 85.7¢	$531.05	$619.52	+$88.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.8¢	$80.98	—	-$80.98
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 88.8¢	$623.68	$695.33	+$71.65	53% 7555-6774 (14329)
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359ARB<$100	Downavg 60¢	$315.93	$328.97	+$13.03	52% 7507-7015 (14522)
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.3¢	$118.57	—	-$118.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 60¢	$197.36	$328.97	+$131.61
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 73.2¢	$426.02	$394.97	-$31.06	53% 17488-15750 (33238)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Downavg 72.9¢	$354.49	$395.88	+$41.39	52% 13068-11882 (24950)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Upavg 41.8¢	$388.99	$202.98	-$186.01	52% 7420-6923 (14343)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.8¢	$244.88	—	-$244.88
└ Down leg	Downavg 71¢	$144.12	$202.98	+$58.86
HC HcrystallashARB<$100	Downavg 75.3¢	$181.73	$163.89	-$17.84	26% 8828-25270 (34098)
└ Up leg	Upavg 9.6¢	$58.28	—	-$58.28
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.3¢	$123.45	$163.89	+$40.44
ST stepahead	Downavg 61.6¢	$267.65	$268.98	+$1.33	55% 6956-5737 (12693)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 84¢	$305.1	$255	-$50.1	57% 72399-55086 (127485)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 71.2¢	$277.35	$342.43	+$65.08	55% 9075-7493 (16568)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.2¢	$243.68	$342.43	+$98.74
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.8¢	$33.66	—	-$33.66
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 74.9¢	$235.5	$213.21	-$22.29	56% 14120-11224 (25344)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 88.3¢	$253.98	$211.36	-$42.62	66% 127607-65637 (193244)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 96¢	$361.92	$377	+$15.08	93% 24752-1828 (26580)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 87¢	$162.22	$184.2	+$22.12	55% 7898-6455 (14353)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 87¢	$167.1	$151.1	-$16	60% 12690-8437 (21127)
SE seeeeeeb	Downavg 99¢	$267.3	$270	+$2.7	53% 856-760 (1616)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 73.1¢	$118.73	$139.51	+$20.77	55% 18827-15394 (34221)
13 13897651	Downavg 58.2¢	$128.6	$220.93	+$92.33	59% 7189-5066 (12255)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 83.6¢	$455.47	$120	+$24.52	54% 8413-7124 (15537)

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,480

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$8.52

Record

56%

3713-2864 (6577)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,088.12

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$87.35

Record

56%

15034-11798 (26832)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$678.27

Value

$665.77

PnL

-$12.5

Record

51%

4742-4529 (9271)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$691.34

Value

$642.87

PnL

-$48.47

Record

50%

5689-5742 (11431)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$586.44

Value

$599.85

PnL

+$13.42

Record

60%

7769-5075 (12844)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$545.73

Value

$555.33

PnL

+$9.6

Record

55%

15877-13227 (29104)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$612.03

Value

$619.52

PnL

+$7.49

Record

47%

1919-2173 (4092)

Both legs:

Down$531.0585.7¢+$88.47

Up$80.9818.8¢-$80.98

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$623.68

Value

$695.33

PnL

+$71.65

Record

53%

7555-6774 (14329)

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$315.93

Value

$328.97

PnL

+$13.03

Record

52%

7507-7015 (14522)

Both legs:

Up$118.5723.3¢-$118.57

Down$197.3660¢+$131.61

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$426.02

Value

$394.97

PnL

-$31.06

Record

53%

17488-15750 (33238)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Down

Invested

$354.49

Value

$395.88

PnL

+$41.39

Record

52%

13068-11882 (24950)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Invested

$388.99

Value

$202.98

PnL

-$186.01

Record

52%

7420-6923 (14343)

Both legs:

Up$244.8841.8¢-$244.88

Down$144.1271¢+$58.86

HcrystallashARB<$100

Down

Invested

$181.73

Value

$163.89

PnL

-$17.84

Record

26%

8828-25270 (34098)

Both legs:

Up$58.289.6¢-$58.28

Down$123.4575.3¢+$40.44

stepahead

Down

Invested

$267.65

Value

$268.98

PnL

+$1.33

Record

55%

6956-5737 (12693)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$305.1

Value

$255

PnL

-$50.1

Record

57%

72399-55086 (127485)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$277.35

Value

$342.43

PnL

+$65.08

Record

55%

9075-7493 (16568)

Both legs:

Down$243.6871.2¢+$98.74

Up$33.6624.8¢-$33.66

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$235.5

Value

$213.21

PnL

-$22.29

Record

56%

14120-11224 (25344)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$253.98

Value

$211.36

PnL

-$42.62

Record

66%

127607-65637 (193244)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$361.92

Value

$377

PnL

+$15.08

Record

93%

24752-1828 (26580)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$162.22

Value

$184.2

PnL

+$22.12

Record

55%

7898-6455 (14353)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$167.1

Value

$151.1

PnL

-$16

Record

60%

12690-8437 (21127)

seeeeeeb

Down

Invested

$267.3

Value

$270

PnL

+$2.7

Record

53%

856-760 (1616)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$118.73

Value

$139.51

PnL

+$20.77

Record

55%

18827-15394 (34221)

13897651

Down

Invested

$128.6

Value

$220.93

PnL

+$92.33

Record

59%

7189-5066 (12255)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$455.47

Value

$120

PnL

+$24.52

Record

54%

8413-7124 (15537)

Smart Money Signal

Down

32 of 47 top traders (68%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x5a0acabc...1f09be

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793615100

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$8.52

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.2K

+$87.35

blue.birds

Down — $665.77

-$12.5

ply-pm0

Down — $642.87

-$48.47

1000monkeys

Down — $599.85

+$13.42

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $555.33

+$9.6

asdcaxz

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$7.49

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down — $695.33

+$71.65

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$13.03

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down — $394.97

-$31.06

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