Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET
Resolved Up. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
19
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
-$447.09
Smart Money Signal
9 of 19 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 72.3¢ | $467.99 | $485.9 | +$17.91 | 56% 14912-11721 (26633) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 20¢ | $116.92 | — | -$116.92 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 72.3¢ | $351.07 | $485.9 | +$134.83 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 75¢ | $444.24 | $344.54 | -$99.7 | 50% 5579-5642 (11221) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 41.5¢ | $156.37 | — | -$156.37 | 56% 8338-6477 (14815) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 41.2¢ | $103.1 | — | -$103.1 | 35% 19115-36121 (55236) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 62.9¢ | $63.96 | $89.15 | +$25.19 | 59% 7083-4987 (12070) |
SF sfkjbsr457<$100 | Downavg 19.6¢ | $77.83 | — | -$1.42 | 54% 8332-7022 (15354) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 31.8¢ | $89.95 | — | -$89.95 | 55% 8959-7393 (16352) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 6.5¢ | $6.46 | — | -$6.46 | 52% 91299-85747 (177046) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $23.25 | $25 | +$1.75 | 64% 40631-23312 (63943) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 82¢ | $33.7 | $25 | -$8.7 | 58% 61075-44602 (105677) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 10.2¢ | $6.15 | — | -$6.15 | 61% 96025-60531 (156556) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 72.4¢ | $16.63 | $22.96 | +$6.33 | 64% 24852-13722 (38574) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Upavg 77.7¢ | $14.74 | $18.97 | +$4.23 | 55% 24171-19504 (43675) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $21 | $25 | +$4 | 62% 44272-27256 (71528) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 33¢ | $8.25 | — | -$8.25 | 56% 58622-45278 (103900) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 6.8¢ | $1.93 | — | -$1.93 | 46% 38661-45750 (84411) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 17.9¢ | $7.84 | — | -$7.84 | 55% 48790-40333 (89123) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 95¢ | $4.94 | $5.2 | +$0.26 | 65% 112557-59402 (171959) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $5.34 | $6.36 | +$1.02 | 64% 4319-2379 (6698) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3698-2861 (6559) |
Invested
$467.99
Value
$485.9
PnL
+$17.91
Record
56%
14912-11721 (26633)
Both legs:
Invested
$444.24
Value
$344.54
PnL
-$99.7
Record
50%
5579-5642 (11221)
Invested
$156.37
Value
—
PnL
-$156.37
Record
56%
8338-6477 (14815)
Invested
$103.1
Value
—
PnL
-$103.1
Record
35%
19115-36121 (55236)
Invested
$63.96
Value
$89.15
PnL
+$25.19
Record
59%
7083-4987 (12070)
Invested
$77.83
Value
—
PnL
-$1.42
Record
54%
8332-7022 (15354)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$89.95
Value
—
PnL
-$89.95
Record
55%
8959-7393 (16352)
Invested
$6.46
Value
—
PnL
-$6.46
Record
52%
91299-85747 (177046)
ohioism<$100Invested
$23.25
Value
$25
PnL
+$1.75
Record
64%
40631-23312 (63943)
Invested
$33.7
Value
$25
PnL
-$8.7
Record
58%
61075-44602 (105677)
Invested
$6.15
Value
—
PnL
-$6.15
Record
61%
96025-60531 (156556)
Invested
$16.63
Value
$22.96
PnL
+$6.33
Record
64%
24852-13722 (38574)
Invested
$14.74
Value
$18.97
PnL
+$4.23
Record
55%
24171-19504 (43675)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$21
Value
$25
PnL
+$4
Record
62%
44272-27256 (71528)
Invested
$8.25
Value
—
PnL
-$8.25
Record
56%
58622-45278 (103900)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$1.93
Value
—
PnL
-$1.93
Record
46%
38661-45750 (84411)
Invested
$7.84
Value
—
PnL
-$7.84
Record
55%
48790-40333 (89123)
Invested
$4.94
Value
$5.2
PnL
+$0.26
Record
65%
112557-59402 (171959)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$5.34
Value
$6.36
PnL
+$1.02
Record
64%
4319-2379 (6698)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3698-2861 (6559)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
Up — $344.54
wzbbb
Down — $0
Little-big
Down — $0
13897651
Up — $89.15
sfkjbsr457
Down — $0
machinelearned
Down — $0
dvasdkasodk
Down — $0
ohioism
Up — $25
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $25