Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
40
Up 57%
2 arb excluded
$16.3K
$-8.9K
Smart Money Signal
23 of 40 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RL RLWGCTR | Downavg 45.6¢ | $6.8K | — | $-6.8K | 64% 1919-1065 (2984) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Upavg 55.3¢ | $2.8K | $5.0K | +$2.2K | 58% 3639-2637 (6276) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 59.7¢ | $4.4K | $4.0K | -$412.6 | 51% 3203-3131 (6334) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 78.9¢ | $2.0K | $1.8K | -$237.16 | 47% 1019-1148 (2167) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$13.49 | 98% 3774-79 (3853) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Downavg 42.2¢ | $1.4K | — | $-1.4K | 50% 502-503 (1005) |
HC HcrystallashCTR | Downavg 48.9¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 58% 5007-3677 (8684) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 40.6¢ | $514.39 | — | -$514.39 | 55% 4420-3598 (8018) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 54.3¢ | $272.04 | $501.4 | +$229.36 | 51% 976-932 (1908) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.6¢ | $532.19 | $491.1 | -$0.51 | 54% 3546-3013 (6559) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.5¢ | $243.03 | $491.1 | +$250.2 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.6¢ | $252.18 | — | -$250.71 | |
KA KARIZMATIKU | Upavg 54.9¢ | $187 | $340.73 | +$153.73 | 18% 36-162 (198) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 35.6¢ | $635.58 | — | -$635.58 | 51% 1417-1386 (2803) |
BO bosona | Upavg 99.9¢ | $1.6K | $310.99 | +$37.26 | 51% 4672-4495 (9167) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 51.7¢ | $299.01 | $578.47 | +$279.46 | 51% 1914-1874 (3788) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Upavg 63.6¢ | $300.76 | $283.35 | -$17.41 | 49% 878-901 (1779) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 59.7¢ | $245.48 | $345.45 | +$99.97 | 48% 2150-2369 (4519) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $246.74 | $246.99 | +$0.25 | 52% 1395-1293 (2688) |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Upavg 54.9¢ | $226.81 | $210 | -$16.81 | 50% 4444-4507 (8951) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54.9¢ | $115.3 | $210 | +$94.7 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.9¢ | $111.51 | — | -$111.51 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 74.8¢ | $234.24 | $220.99 | -$13.25 | 52% 857-800 (1657) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 55¢ | $144.05 | $140 | +$25.05 | 52% 2212-2063 (4275) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 49.1¢ | $66.3 | $135 | +$68.7 | 47% 2188-2425 (4613) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 29.3¢ | $336.43 | — | -$336.43 | 51% 1428-1364 (2792) |
 ohioism | Upavg 62.1¢ | $101.17 | $85 | -$10.92 | 47% 2089-2333 (4422) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $85.43 | $99.81 | +$14.37 | 44% 2099-2693 (4792) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $70.72 | $66.19 | -$3.84 | 67% 3426-1692 (5118) |
Invested
$6,789.83
Value
—
PnL
$-6.8K
Record
64%
1919-1065 (2984)
Invested
$2,789.08
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$2.2K
Record
58%
3639-2637 (6276)
Invested
$4,404.32
Value
$4.0K
PnL
-$412.6
Record
51%
3203-3131 (6334)
Invested
$2,022.04
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$237.16
Record
47%
1019-1148 (2167)
Invested
$1,335.51
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$13.49
Record
98%
3774-79 (3853)
Invested
$1,439.47
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
50%
502-503 (1005)
Invested
$1,207.55
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
58%
5007-3677 (8684)
Invested
$514.39
Value
—
PnL
-$514.39
Record
55%
4420-3598 (8018)
Invested
$272.04
Value
$501.4
PnL
+$229.36
Record
51%
976-932 (1908)
Invested
$532.19
Value
$491.1
PnL
-$0.51
Record
54%
3546-3013 (6559)
Both legs:
Invested
$187
Value
$340.73
PnL
+$153.73
Record
18%
36-162 (198)
Invested
$635.58
Value
—
PnL
-$635.58
Record
51%
1417-1386 (2803)
Invested
$1,586.42
Value
$310.99
PnL
+$37.26
Record
51%
4672-4495 (9167)
Invested
$299.01
Value
$578.47
PnL
+$279.46
Record
51%
1914-1874 (3788)
Invested
$300.76
Value
$283.35
PnL
-$17.41
Record
49%
878-901 (1779)
Invested
$245.48
Value
$345.45
PnL
+$99.97
Record
48%
2150-2369 (4519)
Invested
$246.74
Value
$246.99
PnL
+$0.25
Record
52%
1395-1293 (2688)
Invested
$226.81
Value
$210
PnL
-$16.81
Record
50%
4444-4507 (8951)
Both legs:
Invested
$234.24
Value
$220.99
PnL
-$13.25
Record
52%
857-800 (1657)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$144.05
Value
$140
PnL
+$25.05
Record
52%
2212-2063 (4275)
Invested
$66.3
Value
$135
PnL
+$68.7
Record
47%
2188-2425 (4613)
Invested
$336.43
Value
—
PnL
-$336.43
Record
51%
1428-1364 (2792)
ohioismInvested
$101.17
Value
$85
PnL
-$10.92
Record
47%
2089-2333 (4422)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$85.43
Value
$99.81
PnL
+$14.37
Record
44%
2099-2693 (4792)
Invested
$70.72
Value
$66.19
PnL
-$3.84
Record
67%
3426-1692 (5118)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
RLWG
CTRDown — $0
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Up — $5.0K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $4.0K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.8K
hoodquant
Up — $1.3K
aswfadq1555
CTRDown — $0
Hcrystallash
CTRDown — $0
stepahead
CTRDown — $0
Little-big
Up — $501.4
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded