Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 42% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 42%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.3K

Combined PnL

$-7.1K

Smart Money Signal

13 of 31 top traders (42%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares11,513

Combined PnL$-11.5K

Down18 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares12,448

Combined PnL+$4.4K

Up — 42%Down — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 66.2¢	$6.7K	—	$-6.7K	50% 3063-3014 (6077)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 54.8¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$165.63	46% 977-1126 (2103)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.4¢	$1.1K	$2.6K	+$1.5K
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.8¢	$1.4K	—	$-1.4K
RL RLWG	Downavg 49.9¢	$1.6K	$2.7K	+$1.1K	65% 1911-1050 (2961)
KA KARIZMATIKUARB<$100	Upavg 38.1¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$231.27	15% 28-157 (185)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.1¢	$827.79	—	-$684.21
└ Down leg	Downavg 10.8¢	$111	$1.0K	+$915.48
ST stepahead	Downavg 49.2¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$90	55% 4374-3580 (7954)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 43.9¢	$1.0K	$1.5K	+$445.44	58% 4971-3632 (8603)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Upavg 92.7¢	$3.3K	—	$-2.8K	58% 3596-2603 (6199)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 59.4¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$5.95	50% 2222-2217 (4439)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.4¢	$939.97	$1.6K	+$634.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.4¢	$640.4	—	-$640.4
MO mo-money	Downavg 45.7¢	$1.5K	$1.0K	+$438.56	50% 1358-1358 (2716)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Downavg 43.5¢	$682.48	$1.1K	+$380.1	49% 480-493 (973)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.5¢	$462.27	$1.1K	+$600.31
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.7¢	$220.21	—	-$220.21
AS asabovesobelow2	Downavg 81.7¢	$788.75	$831.06	+$45.02	35% 71-130 (201)
NIULAI4	Downavg 81.7¢	$781.71	$791	+$13.03	27% 469-1251 (1720)
AL almach	Downavg 35¢	$1.1K	$902.89	+$841.82	51% 1368-1337 (2705)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Downavg 46.3¢	$749.37	$1.2K	+$504.45	42% 280-382 (662)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 57.1¢	$576.89	$578.69	+$1.8	52% 2159-2014 (4173)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.6¢	$246.59	$578.69	+$332.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.1¢	$330.31	—	-$330.31
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 55.5¢	$1.7K	$683.07	+$581.81	51% 4610-4467 (9077)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.5¢	$379.33	$683.07	+$799.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.3¢	$98.06	—	-$217.72
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.8¢	$533.41	$495	+$11.4	54% 3405-2902 (6307)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$246.71	$495	+$253.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.8¢	$244.34	—	-$242.05
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 82.4¢	$437	$498.06	+$61.06	50% 1856-1838 (3694)
AS asdcaxzCTR	Upavg 54.7¢	$330.29	—	-$330.29	50% 4364-4429 (8793)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR	Upavg 20.7¢	$126.96	—	-$126.96	42% 1619-2223 (3842)
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR	Upavg 55.2¢	$275.48	—	-$275.48	49% 865-890 (1755)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Downavg 52.8¢	$187.93	$212.04	+$24.11	67% 3307-1655 (4962)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.8¢	$112.05	$212.04	+$99.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.9¢	$75.88	—	-$75.88
Atomforge	Downavg 79.8¢	$230.3	$233.47	+$4.42	26% 274-776 (1050)
ohioismARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$221.42	$282.83	+$61.41	47% 2019-2253 (4272)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$141.42	$282.83	+$141.41
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.6¢	$80	—	-$80
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 67.2¢	$154.4	$153.99	-$0.41	52% 2593-2411 (5004)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.2¢	$103.46	$153.99	+$50.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.7¢	$50.94	—	-$50.94

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$6,664.29

Value

—

PnL

$-6.7K

Record

50%

3063-3014 (6077)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$2,472.7

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$165.63

Record

46%

977-1126 (2103)

Both legs:

Down$1,117.4542.4¢+$1.5K

Up$1,355.2554.8¢$-1.4K

RLWG

Down

Invested

$1,638.11

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

65%

1911-1050 (2961)

KARIZMATIKUARB<$100

Invested

$1,046

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$231.27

Record

15%

28-157 (185)

Both legs:

Up$827.7938.1¢-$684.21

Down$11110.8¢+$915.48

stepahead

Down

Invested

$1,447.58

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$90

Record

55%

4374-3580 (7954)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$1,029.67

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$445.44

Record

58%

4971-3632 (8603)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Invested

$3,255

Value

—

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

58%

3596-2603 (6199)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,588.67

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$5.95

Record

50%

2222-2217 (4439)

Both legs:

Down$939.9759.4¢+$634.45

Up$640.462.4¢-$640.4

mo-money

Down

Invested

$1,460.17

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$438.56

Record

50%

1358-1358 (2716)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$682.48

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$380.1

Record

49%

480-493 (973)

Both legs:

Down$462.2743.5¢+$600.31

Up$220.2129.7¢-$220.21

asabovesobelow2

Down

Invested

$788.75

Value

$831.06

PnL

+$45.02

Record

35%

71-130 (201)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$781.71

Value

$791

PnL

+$13.03

Record

27%

469-1251 (1720)

almach

Down

Invested

$1,146.99

Value

$902.89

PnL

+$841.82

Record

51%

1368-1337 (2705)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Down

Invested

$749.37

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$504.45

Record

42%

280-382 (662)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$576.89

Value

$578.69

PnL

+$1.8

Record

52%

2159-2014 (4173)

Both legs:

Down$246.5942.6¢+$332.1

Up$330.3157.1¢-$330.31

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,705.14

Value

$683.07

PnL

+$581.81

Record

51%

4610-4467 (9077)

Both legs:

Down$379.3355.5¢+$799.53

Up$98.0636.3¢-$217.72

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$533.41

Value

$495

PnL

+$11.4

Record

54%

3405-2902 (6307)

Both legs:

Down$246.7149.8¢+$253.45

Up$244.3449.8¢-$242.05

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$437

Value

$498.06

PnL

+$61.06

Record

50%

1856-1838 (3694)

asdcaxzCTR

Invested

$330.29

Value

—

PnL

-$330.29

Record

50%

4364-4429 (8793)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR

Invested

$126.96

Value

—

PnL

-$126.96

Record

42%

1619-2223 (3842)

peepeepoopoo24CTR

Invested

$275.48

Value

—

PnL

-$275.48

Record

49%

865-890 (1755)

asdaefefARB<$100

Down

Invested

$187.93

Value

$212.04

PnL

+$24.11

Record

67%

3307-1655 (4962)

Both legs:

Down$112.0552.8¢+$99.99

Up$75.8822.9¢-$75.88

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$230.3

Value

$233.47

PnL

+$4.42

Record

26%

274-776 (1050)

ohioismARB<$100

Down

Invested

$221.42

Value

$282.83

PnL

+$61.41

Record

47%

2019-2253 (4272)

Both legs:

Down$141.4250¢+$141.41

Up$8054.6¢-$80

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Down

Invested

$154.4

Value

$153.99

PnL

-$0.41

Record

52%

2593-2411 (5004)

Both legs:

Down$103.4667.2¢+$50.53

Up$50.9434.7¢-$50.94

Smart Money Signal

13 of 31 top traders (42%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x2b3fac96...789d9f

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794674700

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

RLWG

Down — $2.7K

+$1.1K

KARIZMATIKU

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$231.27

stepahead

Down — $1.5K

+$90

Hcrystallash

Down — $1.5K

+$445.44

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $0

uninformedfloww

Arbitrage — excluded

mo-money

Down — $1.0K

aswfadq1555

Arbitrage — excluded