Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET

18 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold Up (60%) · Up at 91¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 14

Up91¢Down9¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 60%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$247.82

Smart Money Entry

47.5¢ → 90.5¢

+90% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 30 top traders (60%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up91%

Down10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up18 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,325

Combined PnL+$401.24

Down12 traders

Total Value$290.22

Total Shares949

Combined PnL-$153.42

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 68.9¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$350.32	51% 2812-2714 (5526)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 81¢	$967.83	$807.63	-$160.2	46% 880-1020 (1900)
└ Up leg	Upavg 81¢	$652.63	$640.32	-$12.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.6¢	$315.2	$167.31	-$147.9
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Upavg 15.4¢	$92	$498.71	+$406.71	42% 266-374 (640)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$516.25	$497.5	+$3.8	55% 3034-2491 (5525)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.5¢	$242.71	$306.25	+$64.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$253.7	$191.25	-$60.95
AS aswfadq1555	Upavg 67.3¢	$455.77	$430.85	-$22.97	50% 436-435 (871)
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 26.4¢	$154.07	$301.65	+$147.58	58% 4878-3558 (8436)
AA aaa221	Upavg 39¢	$149.65	$225.63	+$75.98	60% 3298-2213 (5511)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 26¢	$207.4	$183.55	+$19.64	51% 1930-1826 (3756)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.4¢	$53.29	$95.4	+$50.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 26¢	$111.86	$88.15	-$30.46
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG	Upavg 13.6¢	$26.04	$160.23	+$134.19	33% 239-475 (714)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 54.6¢	$153.04	$148.72	-$4.32	55% 4254-3494 (7748)
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.6¢	$32.38	$118.9	+$86.52
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.6¢	$120.66	$29.82	-$90.84
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 33.2¢	$191.95	$113.17	-$78.78	50% 1219-1216 (2435)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.4¢	$45.45	$62.43	+$16.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.2¢	$146.5	$50.73	-$95.77
BO bosona	Upavg 84.2¢	$130.1	$88.24	-$41.87	51% 4461-4339 (8800)
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100	Downavg 53¢	$80.39	$63.9	-$16.49	49% 827-855 (1682)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 45¢	$37.5	$57.25	+$19.75	49% 4099-4182 (8281)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 22¢	$45.88	$53.18	+$7.3	49% 1204-1240 (2444)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 66.1¢	$56.45	$42.95	+$11.4	44% 1813-2341 (4154)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 37.2¢	$25.34	$37.35	+$12.01	52% 4742-4430 (9172)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$34.3	$34.65	+$0.35	50% 1672-1674 (3346)
AL Alpharo28CTR<$100	Downavg 57.4¢	$83.17	$33.93	-$49.24	59% 156-109 (265)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 62.5¢	$29.22	$29.24	+$1.93	67% 3145-1560 (4705)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 55.5¢	$73.26	$21.77	-$51.49	51% 849-816 (1665)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Downavg 35¢	$28	$20.4	-$7.6	59% 3410-2403 (5813)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Downavg 35¢	$26.25	$19.13	-$7.13	71% 1422-567 (1989)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Downavg 50.2¢	$37.5	$15.31	-$22.19	48% 156-171 (327)
FL flippingsharks<$100	Upavg 18.7¢	$15.1	$14.1	-$0.99	39% 559-877 (1436)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$1,493.73

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$350.32

Record

51%

2812-2714 (5526)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$967.83

Value

$807.63

PnL

-$160.2

Record

46%

880-1020 (1900)

Both legs:

Up$652.6381¢-$12.3

Down$315.238.6¢-$147.9

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Invested

$92

Value

$498.71

PnL

+$406.71

Record

42%

266-374 (640)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$516.25

Value

$497.5

PnL

+$3.8

Record

55%

3034-2491 (5525)

Both legs:

Up$242.7149.5¢+$64.75

Down$253.749.7¢-$60.95

aswfadq1555

Invested

$455.77

Value

$430.85

PnL

-$22.97

Record

50%

436-435 (871)

Hcrystallash

Invested

$154.07

Value

$301.65

PnL

+$147.58

Record

58%

4878-3558 (8436)

aaa221

Invested

$149.65

Value

$225.63

PnL

+$75.98

Record

60%

3298-2213 (5511)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$207.4

Value

$183.55

PnL

+$19.64

Record

51%

1930-1826 (3756)

Both legs:

Up$53.2944.4¢+$50.1

Down$111.8626¢-$30.46

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG

Invested

$26.04

Value

$160.23

PnL

+$134.19

Record

33%

239-475 (714)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$153.04

Value

$148.72

PnL

-$4.32

Record

55%

4254-3494 (7748)

Both legs:

Up$32.3823.6¢+$86.52

Down$120.6654.6¢-$90.84

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$191.95

Value

$113.17

PnL

-$78.78

Record

50%

1219-1216 (2435)

Both legs:

Up$45.4564.4¢+$16.99

Down$146.533.2¢-$95.77

bosona

Invested

$130.1

Value

$88.24

PnL

-$41.87

Record

51%

4461-4339 (8800)

peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$80.39

Value

$63.9

PnL

-$16.49

Record

49%

827-855 (1682)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$37.5

Value

$57.25

PnL

+$19.75

Record

49%

4099-4182 (8281)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$45.88

Value

$53.18

PnL

+$7.3

Record

49%

1204-1240 (2444)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$56.45

Value

$42.95

PnL

+$11.4

Record

44%

1813-2341 (4154)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$25.34

Value

$37.35

PnL

+$12.01

Record

52%

4742-4430 (9172)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$34.3

Value

$34.65

PnL

+$0.35

Record

50%

1672-1674 (3346)

Alpharo28CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$83.17

Value

$33.93

PnL

-$49.24

Record

59%

156-109 (265)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$29.22

Value

$29.24

PnL

+$1.93

Record

67%

3145-1560 (4705)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$73.26

Value

$21.77

PnL

-$51.49

Record

51%

849-816 (1665)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$28

Value

$20.4

PnL

-$7.6

Record

59%

3410-2403 (5813)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$26.25

Value

$19.13

PnL

-$7.13

Record

71%

1422-567 (1989)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$37.5

Value

$15.31

PnL

-$22.19

Record

48%

156-171 (327)

flippingsharks<$100

Invested

$15.1

Value

$14.1

PnL

-$0.99

Record

39%

559-877 (1436)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 30 top traders (60%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.0%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.