Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
27
Up 46%
1 arb excluded
$8.8K
$30.03
Smart Money Signal
13 of 27 top traders (48%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 85¢ | $1.5K | $1.8K | +$268.68 | 50% 1861-1835 (3696) |
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 85.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.5K | +$214.49 | 58% 4758-3485 (8243) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 71.6¢ | $1.7K | $1.5K | -$156.98 | 50% 2434-2391 (4825) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$13.19 | 98% 2789-58 (2847) |
KA KARIZMATIKU | Upavg 43.4¢ | $661 | $995.69 | +$586.23 | 13% 23-149 (172) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Upavg 78.4¢ | $788.72 | $829.37 | +$72.57 | 49% 385-395 (780) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.7¢ | $513.16 | $492.9 | -$0.91 | 55% 2652-2154 (4806) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.6¢ | $244.55 | $492.9 | +$249.69 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.7¢ | $252.37 | — | -$250.6 | |
PB PBot-6CTR | Downavg 49¢ | $168.68 | — | -$168.68 | 51% 609-588 (1197) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 47.9¢ | $140 | — | -$140 | 51% 1727-1644 (3371) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 35.4¢ | $161.74 | — | -$161.74 | 55% 4139-3417 (7556) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Upavg 62.9¢ | $114.24 | $101.42 | -$12.81 | 49% 797-814 (1611) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Downavg 61.7¢ | $70.95 | — | -$70.95 | 59% 3281-2298 (5579) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 15¢ | $135.03 | — | -$52.2 | 49% 1086-1109 (2195) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Downavg 15¢ | $75 | — | -$75 | 49% 1074-1128 (2202) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 85.8¢ | $71.11 | $67.82 | -$3.29 | 52% 4514-4226 (8740) |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 38.5¢ | $127.59 | — | -$127.59 | 51% 4332-4226 (8558) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 79.2¢ | $35.17 | $35.23 | +$0.39 | 66% 2821-1429 (4250) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 34.6¢ | $34.34 | $67 | +$32.66 | 47% 1647-1881 (3528) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR<$100 | Downavg 43.3¢ | $27.29 | — | -$27.29 | 46% 791-924 (1715) |
AL Alpharo28CTR<$100 | Downavg 59.5¢ | $59.69 | — | -$59.69 | 56% 44-34 (78) |
 gabigol<$100 | Upavg 95¢ | $22.77 | $23.33 | +$0.56 | 48% 206-223 (429) |
AA aaa221CTR | Downavg 59.8¢ | $100 | — | -$88.18 | 60% 3027-2022 (5049) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $22.22 | — | -$22.22 | 47% 1686-1913 (3599) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Upavg 49.1¢ | $34.69 | $70.62 | +$35.93 | 38% 480-776 (1256) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 36¢ | $4.14 | — | -$4.14 | 49% 1967-2021 (3988) |
Invested
$1,522.5
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$268.68
Record
50%
1861-1835 (3696)
Invested
$1,305.51
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$214.49
Record
58%
4758-3485 (8243)
Invested
$1,654.11
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$156.98
Record
50%
2434-2391 (4825)
Invested
$1,305.37
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$13.19
Record
98%
2789-58 (2847)
Invested
$661
Value
$995.69
PnL
+$586.23
Record
13%
23-149 (172)
Invested
$788.72
Value
$829.37
PnL
+$72.57
Record
49%
385-395 (780)
Invested
$513.16
Value
$492.9
PnL
-$0.91
Record
55%
2652-2154 (4806)
Both legs:
Invested
$168.68
Value
—
PnL
-$168.68
Record
51%
609-588 (1197)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$140
Value
—
PnL
-$140
Record
51%
1727-1644 (3371)
Invested
$161.74
Value
—
PnL
-$161.74
Record
55%
4139-3417 (7556)
Invested
$114.24
Value
$101.42
PnL
-$12.81
Record
49%
797-814 (1611)
Invested
$70.95
Value
—
PnL
-$70.95
Record
59%
3281-2298 (5579)
Invested
$135.03
Value
—
PnL
-$52.2
Record
49%
1086-1109 (2195)
Invested
$75
Value
—
PnL
-$75
Record
49%
1074-1128 (2202)
Invested
$71.11
Value
$67.82
PnL
-$3.29
Record
52%
4514-4226 (8740)
Invested
$127.59
Value
—
PnL
-$127.59
Record
51%
4332-4226 (8558)
Invested
$35.17
Value
$35.23
PnL
+$0.39
Record
66%
2821-1429 (4250)
Invested
$34.34
Value
$67
PnL
+$32.66
Record
47%
1647-1881 (3528)
Invested
$27.29
Value
—
PnL
-$27.29
Record
46%
791-924 (1715)
Invested
$59.69
Value
—
PnL
-$59.69
Record
56%
44-34 (78)
gabigol<$100Invested
$22.77
Value
$23.33
PnL
+$0.56
Record
48%
206-223 (429)
Invested
$100
Value
—
PnL
-$88.18
Record
60%
3027-2022 (5049)
Invested
$22.22
Value
—
PnL
-$22.22
Record
47%
1686-1913 (3599)
Invested
$34.69
Value
$70.62
PnL
+$35.93
Record
38%
480-776 (1256)
Invested
$4.14
Value
—
PnL
-$4.14
Record
49%
1967-2021 (3988)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
Up — $1.8K
Hcrystallash
Up — $1.5K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $1.5K
hoodquant
Up — $1.3K
KARIZMATIKU
Up — $995.69
aswfadq1555
Up — $829.37
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
PBot-6
CTRDown — $0
Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown — $0
stepahead
CTRDown — $0