Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.1K

Combined PnL

$4.2K

Smart Money Signal

36 of 49 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up36 traders

Total Value$26.3K

Total Shares26,309

Combined PnL+$5.8K

Down13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,300

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Up — 73%Down — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 76.8¢	$4.9K	$5.0K	+$105.24	60% 2617-1724 (4341)
MO mo-money	Upavg 57.5¢	$2.1K	$3.5K	+$1.5K	46% 656-776 (1432)
BO bosona	Upavg 57.8¢	$2.0K	$3.4K	+$1.4K	50% 3878-3890 (7768)
AL almach	Upavg 57.4¢	$1.9K	$3.3K	+$1.3K	47% 654-750 (1404)
BoneOhio	Upavg 98.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$21.2	73% 753-272 (1025)
0X 0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh	Upavg 47.8¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$482.73	6% 28-440 (468)
RL RLWGARB<$100	Downavg 21.5¢	$732.3	$765	+$32.7	67% 1664-818 (2482)
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.5¢	$408.8	—	-$408.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.3¢	$323.5	$765	+$441.5
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.5¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$15.6	98% 1899-39 (1938)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 77.4¢	$1.0K	$964.62	-$65.14	53% 1134-1003 (2137)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 88.7¢	$797.99	$899.99	+$102	38% 459-750 (1209)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 76¢	$597.82	$726.82	+$129	46% 519-610 (1129)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 81.7¢	$713.56	$873.39	+$159.84	49% 767-785 (1552)
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 71.4¢	$448.66	$439.59	-$9.07	57% 4408-3274 (7682)
88 0x8852...c569	Upavg 82.8¢	$307.17	$367.32	+$60.15	—
7E 0x7e5d...c4c3	Upavg 84.7¢	$274.87	$299.17	+$24.3	—
ST stepahead	Upavg 78.1¢	$253.3	$297.39	+$44.09	54% 3778-3168 (6946)
38 38791873984189	Upavg 48.4¢	$222.8	$460	+$237.2	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
14 0x1404...de47	Upavg 78.2¢	$191.41	$212.83	+$21.43	—
F8 0xf8af...54c6	Upavg 83¢	$179.73	$205.29	+$25.56	—
C3 0xc387...e4f4	Upavg 80.3¢	$165.2	$202.52	+$37.31	—
06 0x06b2...9f35<$100	Upavg 74.1¢	$70.28	$74.99	+$4.71	—
42 0x424e...263b<$100	Upavg 91.1¢	$66.63	$70	+$3.37	—
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Upavg 60.3¢	$39.98	$66.31	+$26.33	23% 128-417 (545)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 74.6¢	$71.54	$65.36	-$6.17	52% 3801-3556 (7357)
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 71.4¢	$64.3	$90	+$25.7	47% 593-667 (1260)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$4,894.45

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$105.24

Record

60%

2617-1724 (4341)

mo-money

Invested

$2,080.8

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

46%

656-776 (1432)

bosona

Invested

$1,996.76

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

50%

3878-3890 (7768)

almach

Invested

$1,932.86

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

47%

654-750 (1404)

BoneOhio

Invested

$1,873.93

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$21.2

Record

73%

753-272 (1025)

0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh

Invested

$1,192.87

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$482.73

Record

28-440 (468)

RLWGARB<$100

Down

Invested

$732.3

Value

$765

PnL

+$32.7

Record

67%

1664-818 (2482)

Both legs:

Down$408.821.5¢-$408.8

Up$323.542.3¢+$441.5

hoodquant

Invested

$1,049.39

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$15.6

Record

98%

1899-39 (1938)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$1,042.77

Value

$964.62

PnL

-$65.14

Record

53%

1134-1003 (2137)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$797.99

Value

$899.99

PnL

+$102

Record

38%

459-750 (1209)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$597.82

Value

$726.82

PnL

+$129

Record

46%

519-610 (1129)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$713.56

Value

$873.39

PnL

+$159.84

Record

49%

767-785 (1552)

Hcrystallash

Invested

$448.66

Value

$439.59

PnL

-$9.07

Record

57%

4408-3274 (7682)

0x8852...c569

Invested

$307.17

Value

$367.32

PnL

+$60.15

Record

—

0x7e5d...c4c3

Invested

$274.87

Value

$299.17

PnL

+$24.3

Record

—

stepahead

Invested

$253.3

Value

$297.39

PnL

+$44.09

Record

54%

3778-3168 (6946)

38791873984189

Invested

$222.8

Value

$460

PnL

+$237.2

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

0x1404...de47

Invested

$191.41

Value

$212.83

PnL

+$21.43

Record

—

0xf8af...54c6

Invested

$179.73

Value

$205.29

PnL

+$25.56

Record

—

0xc387...e4f4

Invested

$165.2

Value

$202.52

PnL

+$37.31

Record

—

0x06b2...9f35<$100

Invested

$70.28

Value

$74.99

PnL

+$4.71

Record

—

0x424e...263b<$100

Invested

$66.63

Value

$70

PnL

+$3.37

Record

—

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

$39.98

Value

$66.31

PnL

+$26.33

Record

23%

128-417 (545)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$71.54

Value

$65.36

PnL

-$6.17

Record

52%

3801-3556 (7357)

PBot-5<$100

Invested

$64.3

Value

$90

PnL

+$25.7

Record

47%

593-667 (1260)

Smart Money Signal

36 of 49 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xbe025d54...28099b

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794449700

Traders in this Market

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $5.0K

+$105.24

mo-money

Up — $3.5K

+$1.5K

bosona

Up — $3.4K

+$1.4K

almach

Up — $3.3K

+$1.3K

BoneOhio

Up — $1.9K

+$21.2

0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh

Up — $1.5K

+$482.73

RLWG

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$32.7

hoodquant

Up — $1.1K

+$15.6

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $964.62

-$65.14

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $899.99

+$102

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