Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Up (38%) · Up at 81¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 11

Up81¢Down19¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 38%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

-$183.01

Smart Money Entry

59.1¢ → 80.5¢

+36% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 13 top traders (38%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up81%

Down20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,366

Combined PnL+$154.18

Down8 traders

Total Value$994.33

Total Shares4,233

Combined PnL-$337.19

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 83.2¢	$1.4K	$937.33	-$267.1	50% 1263-1254 (2517)
└ Up leg	Upavg 83.2¢	$768.77	$688.02	-$135.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 39¢	$381.23	$249.31	-$131.93
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 74.8¢	$690.81	$690.04	+$15.62	53% 1080-957 (2037)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.8¢	$501.65	$499.9	+$1.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 23.6¢	$175.7	$190.14	+$14.44
KA KARIZMATIKU	Upavg 55¢	$374	$513.58	+$139.58	6% 8-134 (142)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 52¢	$485.16	$501.71	+$16.54	48% 950-1050 (2000)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 26.6¢	$403.56	$462.85	+$59.3	49% 706-726 (1432)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 65.7¢	$334.29	$353.85	+$19.56	37% 435-728 (1163)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 60.9¢	$310.39	$298.2	-$12.19	54% 3749-3148 (6897)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.9¢	$166.01	$203.21	+$37.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.8¢	$144.38	$94.99	-$49.39
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 40.5¢	$331.25	$257.27	-$56.44	46% 495-586 (1081)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.5¢	$201.4	$181.6	-$19.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 89.6¢	$106.72	$75.67	-$36.64
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 80.5¢	$268.35	$247.2	-$21.15	60% 2597-1705 (4302)
AL almachCTR	Downavg 41¢	$340.77	$187.01	-$153.76	46% 613-725 (1338)
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 30.8¢	$284.18	$143.09	-$141.08	50% 3845-3861 (7706)
HC HcrystallashARB<$100	Downavg 44.5¢	$207.9	$134.04	-$73.86	57% 4377-3250 (7627)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.5¢	$179.08	$102.51	-$76.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.1¢	$28.82	$31.53	+$2.71
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 29¢	$229.14	$122.65	-$106.48	45% 619-745 (1364)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Downavg 43¢	$32.25	$34.88	+$2.63	44% 84-109 (193)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Downavg 47.1¢	$30.54	$32.11	+$1.57	55% 650-530 (1180)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 67¢	$23.45	$23.1	-$0.35	48% 962-1040 (2002)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Downavg 33¢	$6.6	$6.8	+$0.2	48% 575-634 (1209)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Downavg 45¢	$4.5	$4.95	+$0.45	58% 1948-1427 (3375)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$1,431.37

Value

$937.33

PnL

-$267.1

Record

50%

1263-1254 (2517)

Both legs:

Up$768.7783.2¢-$135.18

Down$381.2339¢-$131.93

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$690.81

Value

$690.04

PnL

+$15.62

Record

53%

1080-957 (2037)

Both legs:

Up$501.6574.8¢+$1.18

Down$175.723.6¢+$14.44

KARIZMATIKU

Invested

$374

Value

$513.58

PnL

+$139.58

Record

8-134 (142)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$485.16

Value

$501.71

PnL

+$16.54

Record

48%

950-1050 (2000)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$403.56

Value

$462.85

PnL

+$59.3

Record

49%

706-726 (1432)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$334.29

Value

$353.85

PnL

+$19.56

Record

37%

435-728 (1163)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$310.39

Value

$298.2

PnL

-$12.19

Record

54%

3749-3148 (6897)

Both legs:

Up$166.0160.9¢+$37.19

Down$144.3838.8¢-$49.39

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$331.25

Value

$257.27

PnL

-$56.44

Record

46%

495-586 (1081)

Both legs:

Down$201.440.5¢-$19.8

Up$106.7289.6¢-$36.64

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$268.35

Value

$247.2

PnL

-$21.15

Record

60%

2597-1705 (4302)

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$340.77

Value

$187.01

PnL

-$153.76

Record

46%

613-725 (1338)

bosonaCTR

Down

Invested

$284.18

Value

$143.09

PnL

-$141.08

Record

50%

3845-3861 (7706)

HcrystallashARB<$100

Down

Invested

$207.9

Value

$134.04

PnL

-$73.86

Record

57%

4377-3250 (7627)

Both legs:

Down$179.0844.5¢-$76.57

Up$28.8268.1¢+$2.71

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$229.14

Value

$122.65

PnL

-$106.48

Record

45%

619-745 (1364)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$32.25

Value

$34.88

PnL

+$2.63

Record

44%

84-109 (193)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$30.54

Value

$32.11

PnL

+$1.57

Record

55%

650-530 (1180)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$23.45

Value

$23.1

PnL

-$0.35

Record

48%

962-1040 (2002)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.6

Value

$6.8

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

575-634 (1209)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.45

Record

58%

1948-1427 (3375)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 13 top traders (38%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.6%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.13

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.