Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

12 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Up (48%) · Up at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 11

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 48%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

-$426.82

Smart Money Entry

80.3¢ → 99.5¢

+24% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 25 top traders (48%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares6,809

Combined PnL+$397.23

Down13 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares6,280

Combined PnL-$824.04

Up — 48%Down — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 86.1¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$290.95	61% 2536-1645 (4181)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$8.66	98% 1594-33 (1627)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 66¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$1.08	53% 938-848 (1786)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 31¢	$1.4K	$929.28	-$355.7	51% 1054-1033 (2087)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 25¢	$506.23	$720	+$213.78	50% 3755-3780 (7535)
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.7¢	$151.69	$414.77	+$263.09
└ Down leg	Downavg 25¢	$354.54	$305.23	-$49.31
PB PBot-5	Upavg 65.4¢	$553.44	$592.91	+$43.87	47% 485-549 (1034)
ST stepahead	Upavg 72.8¢	$512.57	$518.66	+$6.09	54% 3668-3086 (6754)
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 60.3¢	$375.47	$413.64	+$38.17	57% 4281-3209 (7490)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 48.9¢	$470.75	$355.87	-$112.83	45% 426-520 (946)
AL almachCTR	Downavg 26.1¢	$302.5	$310.74	+$8.24	45% 526-642 (1168)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Upavg 74.8¢	$211.25	$226.28	+$15.03	33% 157-322 (479)
38 38791873984189CTR	Downavg 48.3¢	$203.29	$208.42	+$5.13	48% 1310-1415 (2725)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 99¢	$87.16	$87.6	+$0.44	46% 809-946 (1755)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 83.6¢	$123.65	$76.76	-$2.77	62% 1746-1091 (2837)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 43.2¢	$66.66	$46.25	-$20.3	44% 821-1039 (1860)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 31.6¢	$326.17	$44.76	-$281.41	45% 534-658 (1192)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 31.2¢	$83.23	$36.45	-$8.53	48% 838-904 (1742)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 90¢	$25.14	$21.12	-$4.02	52% 3572-3348 (6920)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 76.5¢	$9.8	$12.75	+$2.95	19% 175-725 (900)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 59¢	$9.83	$10.25	+$0.42	38% 603-967 (1570)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 72.8¢	$15.35	$9.79	-$1.07	60% 1062-712 (1774)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$5.07	$5.23	+$0.16	54% 563-474 (1037)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Downavg 47¢	$9.4	$5.05	+$0.95	58% 1663-1228 (2891)
NO notfairplayCTR<$100	Downavg 21.1¢	$50	$1.19	-$48.81	17% 5-24 (29)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Downavg 6¢	$0.9	$0.83	-$0.08	67% 1642-794 (2436)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$1,869.12

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$290.95

Record

61%

2536-1645 (4181)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,371.41

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$8.66

Record

98%

1594-33 (1627)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$1,293.19

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$1.08

Record

53%

938-848 (1786)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Down

Invested

$1,405.35

Value

$929.28

PnL

-$355.7

Record

51%

1054-1033 (2087)

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$506.23

Value

$720

PnL

+$213.78

Record

50%

3755-3780 (7535)

Both legs:

Up$151.6928.7¢+$263.09

Down$354.5425¢-$49.31

PBot-5

Invested

$553.44

Value

$592.91

PnL

+$43.87

Record

47%

485-549 (1034)

stepahead

Invested

$512.57

Value

$518.66

PnL

+$6.09

Record

54%

3668-3086 (6754)

Hcrystallash

Invested

$375.47

Value

$413.64

PnL

+$38.17

Record

57%

4281-3209 (7490)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$470.75

Value

$355.87

PnL

-$112.83

Record

45%

426-520 (946)

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$302.5

Value

$310.74

PnL

+$8.24

Record

45%

526-642 (1168)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Invested

$211.25

Value

$226.28

PnL

+$15.03

Record

33%

157-322 (479)

38791873984189CTR

Down

Invested

$203.29

Value

$208.42

PnL

+$5.13

Record

48%

1310-1415 (2725)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$87.16

Value

$87.6

PnL

+$0.44

Record

46%

809-946 (1755)

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$123.65

Value

$76.76

PnL

-$2.77

Record

62%

1746-1091 (2837)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$66.66

Value

$46.25

PnL

-$20.3

Record

44%

821-1039 (1860)

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$326.17

Value

$44.76

PnL

-$281.41

Record

45%

534-658 (1192)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$83.23

Value

$36.45

PnL

-$8.53

Record

48%

838-904 (1742)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$25.14

Value

$21.12

PnL

-$4.02

Record

52%

3572-3348 (6920)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

$12.75

PnL

+$2.95

Record

19%

175-725 (900)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.83

Value

$10.25

PnL

+$0.42

Record

38%

603-967 (1570)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$15.35

Value

$9.79

PnL

-$1.07

Record

60%

1062-712 (1774)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.07

Value

$5.23

PnL

+$0.16

Record

54%

563-474 (1037)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.4

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.95

Record

58%

1663-1228 (2891)

notfairplayCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$50

Value

$1.19

PnL

-$48.81

Record

17%

5-24 (29)

RLWGCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.83

PnL

-$0.08

Record

67%

1642-794 (2436)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 25 top traders (48%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.