Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
Down 50%
2 arb excluded
$4.0K
-$357.21
Smart Money Signal
10 of 20 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97.2¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$41.67 | 98% 1594-33 (1627) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 56.4¢ | $336.56 | $415.79 | +$79.23 | 45% 426-520 (946) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 78.6¢ | $303.25 | $385.79 | +$82.54 | 61% 2536-1645 (4181) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 43.9¢ | $261.35 | $370.24 | +$128.01 | 51% 1054-1033 (2087) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 51.4¢ | $325.32 | — | -$325.32 | 46% 809-946 (1755) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Downavg 43.4¢ | $250.2 | $308.48 | +$58.27 | 45% 534-658 (1192) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43.4¢ | $133.9 | $308.48 | +$174.58 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 34.4¢ | $116.3 | — | -$116.3 | |
ST stepahead | Downavg 57.4¢ | $265.87 | $246.22 | -$19.65 | 54% 3668-3086 (6754) |
HC HcrystallashCTR | Upavg 26¢ | $452.43 | — | -$250.55 | 57% 4281-3209 (7490) |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Upavg 26.8¢ | $216.3 | $137.86 | -$78.44 | 50% 3755-3780 (7535) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 32.8¢ | $45.19 | $137.86 | +$92.67 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 26.8¢ | $171.12 | — | -$171.12 | |
38 38791873984189 | Downavg 48.5¢ | $170.74 | $351.93 | +$181.2 | 48% 1310-1415 (2725) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 63.1¢ | $233.77 | $169 | -$25.17 | 53% 938-848 (1786) |
AL almachCTR | Upavg 23¢ | $116.57 | — | -$116.57 | 45% 526-642 (1168) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 77.6¢ | $37.05 | $37.36 | +$2.15 | 65% 1531-815 (2346) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 75.3¢ | $30.1 | $40 | +$9.9 | 52% 3572-3348 (6920) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $27.3 | — | -$27.3 | 49% 3270-3379 (6649) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 73.1¢ | $49.19 | $22.93 | -$6.86 | 62% 1746-1091 (2837) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 61.9¢ | $24.75 | — | -$24.75 | 48% 838-904 (1742) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 47.1¢ | $23.54 | — | -$23.54 | 44% 821-1039 (1860) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100 | Upavg 34¢ | $10.7 | — | +$1.7 | 58% 1663-1228 (2891) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $1.86 | — | -$1.86 | 60% 1062-712 (1774) |
NO notfairplayCTR<$100 | Upavg 7¢ | $50 | — | -$50 | 17% 5-24 (29) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $12.05 | — | -$12.05 | 37% 374-624 (998) |
Invested
$1,463.14
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$41.67
Record
98%
1594-33 (1627)
Invested
$336.56
Value
$415.79
PnL
+$79.23
Record
45%
426-520 (946)
Invested
$303.25
Value
$385.79
PnL
+$82.54
Record
61%
2536-1645 (4181)
Invested
$261.35
Value
$370.24
PnL
+$128.01
Record
51%
1054-1033 (2087)
Invested
$325.32
Value
—
PnL
-$325.32
Record
46%
809-946 (1755)
Invested
$250.2
Value
$308.48
PnL
+$58.27
Record
45%
534-658 (1192)
Both legs:
Invested
$265.87
Value
$246.22
PnL
-$19.65
Record
54%
3668-3086 (6754)
Invested
$452.43
Value
—
PnL
-$250.55
Record
57%
4281-3209 (7490)
Invested
$216.3
Value
$137.86
PnL
-$78.44
Record
50%
3755-3780 (7535)
Both legs:
Invested
$170.74
Value
$351.93
PnL
+$181.2
Record
48%
1310-1415 (2725)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$233.77
Value
$169
PnL
-$25.17
Record
53%
938-848 (1786)
Invested
$116.57
Value
—
PnL
-$116.57
Record
45%
526-642 (1168)
Invested
$37.05
Value
$37.36
PnL
+$2.15
Record
65%
1531-815 (2346)
Invested
$30.1
Value
$40
PnL
+$9.9
Record
52%
3572-3348 (6920)
Invested
$27.3
Value
—
PnL
-$27.3
Record
49%
3270-3379 (6649)
Invested
$49.19
Value
$22.93
PnL
-$6.86
Record
62%
1746-1091 (2837)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$24.75
Value
—
PnL
-$24.75
Record
48%
838-904 (1742)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$23.54
Value
—
PnL
-$23.54
Record
44%
821-1039 (1860)
Invested
$10.7
Value
—
PnL
+$1.7
Record
58%
1663-1228 (2891)
Invested
$1.86
Value
—
PnL
-$1.86
Record
60%
1062-712 (1774)
Invested
$50
Value
—
PnL
-$50
Record
17%
5-24 (29)
Invested
$12.05
Value
—
PnL
-$12.05
Record
37%
374-624 (998)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.5K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $415.79
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $385.79
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $370.24
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
mo-money
ARBArbitrage — excluded
stepahead
Down — $246.22
Hcrystallash
CTRUp — $0
bosona
ARBArbitrage — excluded
38791873984189
Down — $351.93